Bitcoin BTC$62,560.27 started the week just below $63,000, with Friday’s U.S. jobs report the biggest macro event likely to determine whether the July rebound continues, though developments in Iran may take on greater significance in the coming days.
A muted rise in U.S. hiring could be the best outcome for risk assets like crypto. Such a rise would ease fears of an economic slowdown, but wouldn’t push the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said a gain of around 88,000 jobs with unemployment unchanged at 4.2% would strike that balance in a “Goldlocks-type print.”
The U.S. government’s borrowing plans are another macro focus. JPMorgan strategist Jay Barry said the Treasury is likely to keep its regular debt sales unchanged, which would avoid adding pressure to interest rates. Larger-than-expected sales could raise borrowing costs for households and companies and weigh on crypto.
Traders will also watch earnings from Circle, Galaxy, Block and six bitcoin miners. BIP-110, a proposal to temporarily limit non-financial data stored on the Bitcoin blockchain, is expected to enter its required miner-signaling period.
With less than 3% support, it is more likely to move nodes enforcing the change onto a small alternative chain than alter Bitcoin’s main network.
What to Watch
(All times ET)
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Crypto
- Aug. 3: Ctrl Wallet to disable sending, receiving, swaps and decentralized app (dapp) access as it begins an export-only winddown.
- Around Aug. 7: BIP-110’s mandatory miner-signaling window to begin at block 961,632.
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Macro
- Aug. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July (Prev. 53.3)
- Aug. 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for June (Prev. 7.594M)
- Aug. 5, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for July (Prev. 98K)
- Aug. 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
- Aug. 5, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for July (Prev. 54)
- Aug. 6, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Retail Sales YoY for June (Prev. 1.6%)
- Aug. 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending Aug. 1 (Prev. 197K)
- Aug. 7, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for July (Prev. 57K); Unemployment Rate (Prev. 4.2%); Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Prev. 0.3%)
- Aug. 8, 9:30 p.m.: China Consumer Price Index YoY for July (Prev. 1.0%); MoM (Prev. -0.3%)
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Earnings
- Aug. 3: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market, $0.15
- Aug. 4: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.32
- Aug. 5: MercadoLibre (MELI), post-market, $8.95
- Aug. 5: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), pre-market, $0.17
- Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, -$0.05
- Aug. 5: Riot Platforms (RIOT), pre-market, -$0.22
- Aug. 5: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.79
- Aug. 5: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.19
- Aug. 6: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market; -$0.26
- Aug. 6: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.33