Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August with a monthly close above $63,000, according to 10x Research.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin closed July below the threshold needed to confirm a technical bottom.
A monthly close near $63,000 would turn several of 10x Research’s cycle indicators bullish. Bitcoin was trading at $63,140 when the analysis was prepared, meaning a relatively small gain from July’s closing level could trigger the reversal signal. The company said it continued to favor long positions but would shift to a neutral stance if Bitcoin broke key support levels and moving averages.
The base case is that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. However, further increases in the 10-year Treasury yield could force a September rate hike, while the Iran conflict remained an unpredictable risk.
The report said miners could generate roughly 100,000 $BTC of selling pressure as some miners shift their businesses toward artificial intelligence. The company said it expected additional supply from Bitcoin treasury companies unwinding positions, though it described macroeconomic conditions as the larger risk to the market.
Bitcoin monthly relative strength index (RSI) chart. Source: 10x Research
Separately, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would suggest. That pattern would place the cycle low in September or October.
Pandl said macroeconomic conditions, including Fed policy, would remain the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price and could determine when it bottoms.
More indicators point to an approaching Bitcoin bottom
Earlier in July, crypto brokerage K33 said more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss, which it described as another indication that a market bottom was approaching.
Bitcoin during periods when 50% of supply was held at a loss, with subsequent annual returns. Source: K33
Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of the same threshold being reached in 2017, 2018 and 2022, according to K33.
In a June interview, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that long-term holders’ record balance of 14.7 million $BTC was another indication that Bitcoin was nearing a bottom.