BTC Hits $64,360, but Bitfinex Warns of Downside Risks

Bitcoin Defends $63,500 Support

Bitcoin oscillated between $63,300 and $64,300 on Tuesday amid reports that the U.S. Senate could vote on the CLARITY Act this week. Since reclaiming $63,000 shortly after midday on Aug. 3, the cryptocurrency has largely held above that key threshold.

In fact, 24-hour data shows that save for two occasions when it tumbled to $63,300 (Aug. 3, 9 p.m. EDT) and $63,400 (Aug. 4, 6:30 a.m. EDT), bitcoin found support above $63,500. Initially, the cryptocurrency appeared to lose momentum after tapping $64,000. However, after rallying to $64,129 (10:20 a.m. EDT), each surge that followed saw it hit a new session high, culminating in the daily peak of $64,360.

While it retreated slightly shortly afterward, bitcoin’s price action translated into another marginal gain (0.8%), leaving its market capitalization at $1.29 trillion. In the derivatives market, bitcoin’s price action in the 24-hour window was particularly brutal for traders with overleveraged short positions. Coinglass data shows that of the $42 million liquidated during the period, shorts accounted for 83% of the total, or $35 million. Overall, the crypto economy saw $122 million in short bets wiped out versus $58 million in long bets.

As reported by Bitcoin.com News earlier today, Senate Majority Leader John Thune remains optimistic the bill will reach a vote before recess. However, with under three days remaining and a history of similar unfulfilled promises, Thune’s comments failed to sway prediction market traders.

On Polymarket, the odds of the bill passing in 2026 fell to 25% by Tuesday afternoon, down from 27% on Monday. If the legislation stalls, bitcoin’s chances of a year-end rally will hinge on broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-native catalysts. Bitfinex analysts agree, noting that rising real yields and bitcoin’s ability to hold the $62,000–$65,000 support range will dictate its next direction.

“The transition into August comes with immediate pressure: a reversal from an intra-week peak of $65,420 led to a close below $63,000, followed by price closing at $62,815 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Two daily closes below $63,000 officially activates the downside trigger established in last week’s Intelligence Update,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in the latest report.

The analysts also assert the market remains macro dependent, pointing to a strong bond market for longer-term maturities and the current pressure on equities, which has increased strain on BTC. Still, for bitcoin, the most important factor is not economic growth. “It is the real cost of money — the return investors can earn after inflation. The current environment can help and hurt at the same time,” the analysts conclude.