Bitcoin is facing a strong sell wall around the $120,000 level. The latest attempt to break higher was rejected, resulting in a 3% retrace to about $118,525 on Tuesday. This short-term weakness is being highlighted by a “death cross” on the four-hour chart and a bearish divergence on the daily RSI, both hinting at a possible correction.
If the price closes below its mid-term rising trendline, it could be pushed back toward the support level around $117,000. However, the macro bullish trend remains strong, as shown by the daily MACD indicator, which has recently flashed a buy signal.
Nevertheless, the macro bullish trend remains strong, as flashed by the daily MACD indicator. Notably, the daily MACD indicator saw its MACD line cross above the Signal line amid rising bullish histograms.
July Inflation Comes in Cooler Than Expected
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics has released July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, August 12. According to aggregate data analysis from Forex Factory, July’s CPI data came in lower than anticipated 2.7% YoY, while economists anticipated the CPI to hit 2.8% Y/Y.
As we covered. This CPI release was one of the biggest events on our radar this week. Here’s our full preview of what to watch.
According to data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, the majority of traders, accounting for 74%, expected Tuesday’s CPI to be at 2.7%. The inflation in July was elevated by the ongoing tariff wars, especially between the United States and China.
Does This Mean a Bitcoin Rally Is Next?
Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility in the past CPI announcement. According to an analysis by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin price has often rallied after the CPI data release, if the flagship coin has dropped before the official announcement, and vice versa.
When Bitcoin $BTC dips ahead of CPI or PPI reports, it often rallies right after the data drops, and vice versa. pic.twitter.com/rzQDngZAWi
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 12, 2025
Macro Fundamentals Stay Strong
Bitcoin price remains heavily influenced by the macro fundamentals, despite the short-term volatility caused by high-impact news. The palpable aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional investors has worsened the supply vs demand shock, which had already triggered macro bullish sentiment.
According to market data analysis from CoinGlass, the supply of BTC on centralized exchanges has declined by 7k in the last 30 days to hover around a multi-year low of about 2.24 million coins.
For the long haul. While traders watch the hourly chart, one top analyst has a longer-term strategy. Here’s his take on how to play this new kind of bull market.
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