Glassnode: Bitcoin’s Recovery Continues, But This Critical Signal Is Missing

While Bitcoin’s price has recovered from its lows of around $58,000 seen in late June and is stabilizing around $65,000, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode stated that the current market outlook still points to a “transitional recovery.”

According to Glassnode’s analysis, although Bitcoin has recently stabilized around $65,000, price movements continue to remain flat below the $66,000 region. While market momentum appears to be approaching neutral levels again and taker purchases in spot markets are accelerating significantly, the total trading volume on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges remains relatively low.

Analysts stated that this divergence indicates a gradual strengthening of demand in the current consolidation environment, rather than a widespread increase in speculative activity.

Aggressive Buying Increases in Bitcoin Futures

According to Glassnode, the derivatives markets also show a similarly balanced but improving picture.

Taker activity in perpetual futures markets rose above the upper statistical bands, indicating that investors have become more aggressive in taking directional positions.

However, the fact that open positions and funding rates remain at moderate levels indicates that while the use of leverage has increased in the market, it has not yet reached an uncontrolled level.

In the options market, the skew indicator has narrowed. According to Glassnode, this indicates that the premium investors are willing to pay to protect themselves against downward price movements has decreased, and short-term defensive positioning has eased.

Institutional Bitcoin Demand Remains Strong

One of the most positive indicators highlighted by Glassnode was demand from institutional investors.

Net inflows into regulated Bitcoin investment products have reportedly reached levels strong enough to exceed upper statistical thresholds. This movement occurred despite a slight slowdown in trading volumes of these products in secondary markets.

On-chain data also showed an increase in the share of capital in the total supply, defined as “hot capital,” which is more prone to short-term movement.

paralel to this, it was noted that the ratio of Bitcoin held by short-term investors to that held by long-term investors also increased. Glassnode stated that this trend indicates that capital more sensitive to price movements is gradually beginning to return to the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin Network Activity Remains Weak

Despite positive signals, key activity indicators on the Bitcoin network are not yet reflecting the recovery.

The number of active Bitcoin addresses, on-chain transaction volume, and revenue from transaction fees have all declined towards lower statistical bands.

According to Glassnode, this data indicates that investors do not feel an urgency to transact on the Bitcoin network, and organic demand remains at low levels.

Network-wide investor profitability has shown a limited improvement. While the share of profitable Bitcoin supply has increased, the magnitude of realized losses on the chain still exceeds realized profits.

Glassnode: “Bitcoin Is Not Yet in a Widespread Bullish Phase”

Glassnode assessed the current market structure as “a recovery in transition.”

Strengthening institutional money inflows, increased taker demand in spot and futures markets, and options investors starting to take less defensive positions are creating a positive environment for Bitcoin.

However, the fact that spot market liquidity remains low and activity on the Bitcoin network is weak indicates that the current recovery has not yet transformed into a strong expansion across the entire market.

Bitcoin’s ability to break above the $66,000 level and maintain its position above this level will be closely watched as an indicator of whether the current recovery will transform into a stronger uptrend.

*This is not investment advice.