Bitcoin price reclaims $64K, but leverage raises pullback risk

Bitcoin price rose 1.7% to around $64,200 on Aug. 18 as ETF inflows supported the rebound, but rising leverage left the recovery exposed to a pullback.

The rebound from the $62,600 area improved short-term momentum, although the daily chart continues to show Bitcoin trading below its two longer-term moving averages. Leverage is also building while liquidity rests on both sides of the current price, leaving the recovery exposed to sharp moves if buyers fail to extend the advance.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $137 million in net inflows on Monday. The inflows followed over $385 million in net withdrawals during the previous week, suggesting institutional demand returned after several sessions of selling.

The recovery also came as buyers defended an area that has repeatedly attracted demand since June. Bitcoin ($BTC) fell toward $62,600 on Aug. 14 and again tested the upper $62,000 region on Aug. 17 before climbing as high as $64,586 on Tuesday.

Bitcoin price moves back above short-term averages

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price at $64,210, slightly above the 20-day simple moving average at $63,802 and the 50-day moving average at $63,889. Holding both levels would keep the short-term recovery intact and establish the $63,800–$64,000 region as the first support area.

The daily relative strength index rose to 51.95 and moved above its signal average of 49.14. A reading above 50 indicates that buying momentum has gained a slight advantage, although the indicator remains close enough to the midpoint to show that neither buyers nor sellers have firm control.

Longer-term resistance continues to limit the recovery. Bitcoin remains below its 100-day moving average at $66,416 and its 200-day average near $69,079. Both lines are sloping downward, meaning $BTC would need to reclaim several resistance levels before the broader daily trend turns decisively stronger.

The price has also traded in a narrow range since the end of June, with most daily closes concentrated between approximately $62,000 and $66,000. A daily close above the 100-day average would break the upper part of that structure and place $69,000 within reach.

Failure to remain above the short-term averages would weaken the latest rebound. The first downside levels are around $63,800 and $62,600, followed by the liquidity-heavy region close to $62,200.

4-hour chart points to $63,800 as the first test

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a stronger near-term setup after the price climbed from around $62,800 to above $64,000. The Supertrend indicator flipped to support, with its lower boundary near $63,251, while the bull-bear power histogram moved into positive territory at 697.

Positive bull-bear power indicates that buyers are currently pushing the price above its underlying average. However, the histogram began shrinking after its initial expansion, suggesting that the strength of the rebound was easing as Bitcoin approached $64,500.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin had produced a strong upward move but encountered resistance after reaching the mid-$64,000 region. He identified $63,800–$64,000 as a possible lower-time-frame entry area and maintained a $65,000 target for the coming days or week.

“$BTC has hit resistance and should therefore find some level of support for buyers to be stepping in,” Van de Poppe said.

His support zone matches the daily moving-average cluster near $63,800–$63,900. A successful retest of that area would allow buyers to challenge $64,500 again, while a drop through it would shift attention to the 4-hour Supertrend support near $63,250.

A break above Tuesday’s $64,586 high would provide the first evidence that the recovery is extending. The next visible resistance levels sit around $64,800, $65,200, and $66,400, with the last level corresponding closely to the daily 100-day moving average.

Liquidation map places $BTC between two large liquidity pools

CoinGlass’ one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows a dense concentration of leveraged positions around $64,700. The band is the closest major pool above the market and could attract price if $BTC clears the $64,500–$64,600 resistance area.

Additional liquidation concentrations appear near $65,000, $65,500, and $66,000. A move through $64,700 could force bearish positions to close, potentially accelerating the advance toward those higher levels.

The largest nearby downside pool sits around $62,200–$62,300. Smaller concentrations are visible near $63,500 and $62,800, giving sellers several potential targets if the price loses $63,800.

Crypto market commentator Rain said $BTC’s ability to remain above $64,000 masked risks developing beneath the price. According to Rain, long leverage has been increasing while exchange liquidity has declined, creating a risk that a move toward the upper-$50,000 range could trigger forced selling.

Rain also said miners had reportedly reduced computing capacity by about 20% over three quarters as some operators shifted resources toward artificial intelligence. The commentator questioned whether institutional demand could continue absorbing the resulting pressure.

The charts do not yet confirm a fall into the upper-$50,000 region. Bitcoin would first need to lose the daily moving-average cluster, the $62,600 floor, and the large liquidation band near $62,200. Those levels currently separate the range-bound market from a deeper decline.

Bitcoin’s immediate direction therefore depends on whether buyers can turn $63,800–$64,000 into support. Holding that zone would leave $64,700 and $65,000 as the next targets, while a breakdown would expose $63,250, $62,600, and the leveraged positions concentrated near $62,200.