Prediction markets are assigning a meaningful chance that Bitcoin ($BTC) will reach $90,000 by September 1, 2026, following one of the cryptocurrency’s strongest rallies of the year.
Data from Polymarket shows traders currently assign an 8% probability that Bitcoin will touch $90,000 before September 1 after the digital asset surged more than 20% in a week.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $79,136, up nearly 1% on the day and almost 25% over the past seven days.
Polymarket traders see $77,500 as the most likely near-term target, assigning it a 70% probability. The market also gives Bitcoin a 52% chance of reaching $82,500 and a 26% probability of climbing to $85,000.
Despite the strong momentum, prediction market participants remain cautious about a move to $90,000 before September. Polymarket currently assigns only a 1% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before September 1.
On the downside, traders see a 36% probability that Bitcoin falls to $75,000 and a 7% chance of dropping to $70,000 before the deadline.
The odds suggest market participants expect the digital asset to remain elevated after its recent breakout while viewing a move beyond $90,000 as possible but unlikely within the next week.
Bitcoin’s recent rally has been fueled by strong institutional demand, improving liquidity conditions, regulatory optimism, and a major short squeeze.
U.S. spot BitcoinETFs attracted about $1.6 billion in net inflows last week, including more than $600 million in a single day, marking the strongest inflow period of 2026. The move was supported by expanded U.S. Treasury bond buybacks, which boosted liquidity and weakened the dollar, increasing demand for alternative assets.
Investors were also encouraged by progress on crypto regulation, including renewed support for the CLARITY Act. Meanwhile, billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated as Bitcoin surged, further accelerating the rally.
Bitcoin’s bullish technical structure
Beyond the fundamental catalysts, Bitcoin has also flashed a significant long-term bullish signal. According to analysis shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez in an August 24 Xpost, $BTC has reclaimed its 1,130-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that has historically marked the end of previous bear markets.
Bitcoin lost the 1,130-day SMA on June 1, 2026, and spent about 80 days trading below the indicator. On August 20, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the moving average after breaking above $74,000, turning the level back into support.
The outlook suggests that in each of the previous four market cycles, Bitcoin entered a sustained bull market shortly after recovering the 1,130-day SMA. The indicator successfully identified major bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023 before significant rallies followed.
With Bitcoin now trading above the moving average and approaching $80,000, the recovery strengthens the view that the market may have already established its cycle bottom.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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