The Most Critical Levels for Bitcoin Have Been Revealed – Here’s the Point That Could Trigger a Bull Run

Cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode stated that the strong recovery in Bitcoin from its mid-August lows is driven by the year’s largest ETF inflows, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, and widespread accumulation by investor groups. According to the company, the most significant obstacle Bitcoin needs to overcome to reach its January peaks is the high supply zone between $81,000 and $86,000.

According to Glassnode’s analysis, Bitcoin has risen approximately 26% from its mid-August low, with the movement beginning with a historically large short liquidation on August 19, 2026. This was the largest daily short liquidation in dollar terms since the company’s data began tracking 2019, and 85% of total liquidations during the rally came from short positions.

According to the analysis firm, approximately 86% of the liquidation clusters that were ahead of Bitcoin’s price during the rally have been cleared. Despite this, a significant short liquidation zone still exists between $82,000 and $86,000.

Below the Bitcoin price, there is a significant cluster of liquidations of long positions between $60,500 and $62,400.

A significant reduction in leverage also occurred in the futures market. While the amount of open positions in Bitcoin futures decreased by 11 percent during the bull run, the size of open positions in dollar terms increased primarily due to the rise in Bitcoin’s price.

According to Glassnode, this indicates that liquidated short positions are not being quickly recreated through new leveraged trades.

The fact that funding rates remained largely neutral throughout the rise, occasionally turning negative, indicated that the movement was supported by short liquidations rather than newly opened, large long positions.

Glassnode stated that the rise was not solely due to short selling and that real capital was also entering the market.

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $2.23 billion over a seven-day bull run. No net outflows were observed on any day during this period, marking the strongest seven-day ETF inflow since 2026.

The strongest day for ETFs was the day that saw the largest daily capital inflow since January 14, 2026.

Bitcoin also managed to surpass the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis level again during the same period, which is the average cost level for short-term investors.

However, market activity remained below previous peaks. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume during the bull week was approximately $2.4 billion. This amount is roughly half of the levels seen in January-February.

Glassnode also drew attention to the movement of Bitcoin supply among different investor groups.

Since the low point on June 30, 2026, the total Bitcoin holdings of investors who held 1,000-10,000 $BTC have decreased by approximately 50,500 $BTC.

In contrast, the largest group of investors holding more than 100,000 $BTC, primarily comprised of cryptocurrency exchanges, custodians, and ETFs, accumulated approximately 59,100 $BTC during the same period.

During the short squeeze period alone, this group’s assets increased by approximately 31,500 $BTC. Glassnode noted that this amount is similar in magnitude to the Bitcoin creations that occurred in ETFs during the same period, but a direct correlation between the two data points and Bitcoin movement cannot be established.

According to Glassnode’s Accumulation Tendency Score indicator, all Bitcoin investors exhibit an accumulation tendency.

All six different groups of Bitcoin investors have a 30-day accumulation score above 0.5 since August 5, 2026.

This situation has been ongoing for approximately 20 days, making it one of the longest periods since the 22-day period seen in late 2024 where all investor groups have been accumulating wealth simultaneously.

Glassnode noted that a drop in the score of any investor group below 0.5 could be one of the first warning signs that broad-based demand supporting the rally is beginning to weaken.

Bitcoin Finds Strong Support Between $62,000-$65,000

According to Glassnode’s cost-based analysis, Bitcoin has a significant support zone between $62,000 and $65,000 below its current price.

Approximately two-thirds of the Bitcoins purchased at these levels between June and August are held by short-term investors. Therefore, this region is considered an important support level where recent market entrants can try to maintain their average cost.

The short-term investment cost for Bitcoin is approximately $70,000.

According to Glassnode, the first significant signal of weakness in the uptrend could emerge when Bitcoin falls below $70,000. The next major support zone would be $62,000-$65,000.

A return to approximately $62,900, which is seen as the starting point of Bitcoin’s upward movement, could mean a significant reversal of the current uptrend.

Glassnode: The Real Test for Bitcoin: $81,000-$86,000

The most significant resistance zone for Bitcoin is located in the $81,000-$86,000 range.

According to Glassnode, many independent market indicators point to the same price range.

The initial self-custody cost zone starts at approximately $80,800, while the dealer gamma level in the options market turns negative at around $82,300. Short liquidation clusters extend up to $86,000, while the high cost zone for long-term investors is located between $83,000 and $86,000.

Glassnode also noted that sell orders on exchanges increased as the price rose. Pending sell orders within a specific range above the Bitcoin price increased by 41 percent in the last five days, while buy orders decreased by 32 percent across the visible order book over the last seven days.

According to the company, this data shows that sellers are particularly positioned above the current price.

A Rise Above $83,300 Could Confirm the Uptrend

Glassnode believes that sustained closes above $83,300 are needed to more strongly confirm the continuation of the uptrend in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin settling above this region, coupled with continued strong ETF inflows, could indicate that the intense selling pressure between $81,000 and $86,000 has been absorbed by the market.

The options market, however, is currently pricing in a more sideways trend.

With two major options expiring soon, there are positions of approximately $10.4 billion and $13.7 billion respectively, while maximum pain levels are around $69,000 and $70,000.

The medium 70% probability range priced for options expiring on September 25, 2026, is approximately between $69,000 and $89,700.

Glassnode stated that the options market is not currently pricing in either a strong breakout above $86,000 or Bitcoin’s return to its main support zone as its primary scenario.

*This is not investment advice.