Bitcoin just blew past $113,800 on Thursday, setting a new all-time high. The oldest digital asset has been on a tear for the last several months — and has nearly doubled over the past year, climbing from $57,899 a year ago today.
CoinDesk analysts and industry experts are watching closely to see if bitcoin
can rise to $120,000, or if this week’s price action is just an ephemeral gasp.
Helene Braun, CoinDesk markets reporter (19:12 UTC): Crypto-linked stocks are on fire, with crypto exchanges such as Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) rising more than 3% on Thursday. Meanwhile, the miners such as Hut 8
, Bitfarms (BITF), and HIVE Digital
are up more than 4%. Interestingly, the stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL), the hottest new crypto IPO stock, is only up by 0.4%.
James Van Straten, CoinDesk Bitcoin analyst (18:55 UTC): The 2021 bull run’s second half was purely leverage and derivatives-driven. It had a 50% hash rate correction, and all on-chain metrics were bearish, plus we had incoming fed rate hikes for the first time. Market cycle is completely different with a new buyer in the market, a new Fed chair potentially incoming with cuts and a crypto-pro U.S. president. Also, don’t forget the swath of bitcoin buying treasury companies.
Oliver Knight, co-leader of CoinDesk data and tokens (18:55 UTC): Net accounts are still short (CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole mentioned this was a retail indicator). This is interesting, as in previous cycles, we had retail euphoria, but not so much this time.
However, while on the surface a record high for bitcoin is almost certainly bullish, a number of technical indicators paint a different picture: the daily RSI has now made three lower highs, an example of bearish divergence indicating the move could be short-lived. Trading volume has also dropped off since the initial record high in January, and BTC is still below its respective record highs against EUR and GBP, indicating dollar weakness over BTC strength.
Also, the trading firms I speak to are bearish, but it is worth noting that they were also bearish from BTC’s $30k to $70k run in the last cycle’s double top.