Bitcoin and gold are moving together more closely than they have in years. This challenges the usual view that Bitcoin is a riskier asset, while gold is a safe haven.
Adam Livingston, vice president of investments at Strive, pointed out this change on X, noting that Bitcoin and gold have become much more closely correlated across different time periods.
Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Surges
Livingston said Bitcoin and gold had a full-sample correlation of only +0.17 since 2020, meaning the two assets generally moved independently over the period. The yearly figures remained relatively low:
- 2020: +0.26
- 2021: +0.01
- 2022: +0.12
- 2023: +0.12
- 2024: +0.14
- 2025: +0.09
- 2026 YTD: +0.43
However, the shorter-term readings have climbed much higher. Livingston cited a 30-day correlation of +0.68, a 60-day reading of +0.58, a 90-day correlation of +0.63, and a 252-day correlation of +0.41.
He said the 30-day and 252-day readings were around the 99th percentile of their historical ranges, while the 90-day reading was near the 99.9th percentile.
Bitcoin’s “Risk-On” Narrative May Be Changing
Bitcoin has traditionally been seen as a riskier asset, while gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset during inflation, currency worries, or financial uncertainty. But that difference may be changing as Bitcoin and gold are increasingly moving in the same direction.
Livingston suggested that Bitcoin and gold could be seen as “two different exits from the same system” rather than completely opposite investments. This comes as investors continue to watch inflation, interest rates, bond yields and currency movements.
Gold is at around $4,300 per ounce as markets await the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision. Reuters reported that gold later rose 0.8% to $4,326. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is around $75,800, dipping 2% over the past day.
Bitcoin and Gold Face the Same Macro Challenges
Notably, the strong connection between Bitcoin and gold comes as U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year yield briefly topping 5% before falling back.
Higher yields and a stronger dollar can put pressure on assets like gold that do not pay interest. Bitcoin has also faced selling pressure recently, closing September 15 at around $75,613 after trading above $82,000 earlier in the month.
Meanwhile, the high correlation does not mean Bitcoin and gold will always move together. Correlation simply shows how closely two assets have moved over a certain period. It does not mean one causes the other to move.
But the unusually high correlation suggests that the relationship between Bitcoin and gold has changed significantly in recent months. Some crypto users have pointed to this as a sign that Bitcoin is “finally acting like digital gold.”
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