Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion IPO is fueling an $80 million crypto trade

Anthropic’s prospective $2 trillion IPO has already spawned nearly $80 million in crypto derivatives bets before its public debut.

Open interest in futures linked to the Claude developer has climbed to about $79.27 million, close to a record $80 million, as traders position around what could become one of the largest initial public offerings ever attempted. The activity is unfolding even though Anthropic has yet to disclose an offering price, final valuation, or number of shares it intends to sell.

CoinGlass data showed its ANTHROPIC pre-stock contract trading around $2,147, with more than $20 million changing hands in futures over 24 hours. Binance has emerged as the largest venue for the trade, accounting for roughly 40% of activity.

The contract does not represent Anthropic stock. CoinGlass shows no circulating supply or spot trading for the instrument, while Anthropic remains privately held. The price instead reflects derivatives markets attempting to value exposure to a company whose actual shares are not yet publicly available.

That distinction has become increasingly important as crypto exchanges create markets around some of Silicon Valley’s most valuable private companies, effectively opening price discovery before traditional equity investors can buy the underlying shares.

Anthropic confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June. The company said at the time that it had not yet determined the number of shares or their price.

Investors have discussed a valuation of as much as $2 trillion, which would make the offering one of the largest ever attempted. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic now plans to stage the IPO in November, later than the October timetable investors had previously expected.

Private AI becomes a crypto derivatives trade

Anthropic is part of a broader shift in which crypto markets are building tradable instruments around companies that remain inaccessible to most public-market investors.

Open interest across Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals surpassed $160 million this month, up from roughly $1 million in April and 179% from a month earlier, Binance Research said. The two companies accounted for about 95% of pre-IPO perpetual volume during the first 14 days of September.

Those markets differ significantly from tokenized stocks backed by actual securities.

Pre-IPO perpetuals are cash-settled derivatives referencing an anticipated public company valuation or share price. Binance Research said no underlying shares are required to support the contracts, meaning traders are effectively taking opposing positions on what the company could eventually be worth.

That structure allows crypto markets to trade corporate developments almost immediately.

OpenAI-linked instruments, for example, rose after the company released its Astra model earlier this month and fell after Chief Executive Sam Altman signaled that its IPO could be delayed, Binance Research said.

Anthropic now presents another significant test.

Reuters reported earlier this month that some investors were discussing a $2 trillion valuation for the company, while the latest timetable pushes the proposed listing into November. Anthropic is also considering releasing another AI model ahead of the IPO as competition with OpenAI intensifies.

Rising futures open interest shows the notional value of outstanding positions is growing, though it does not by itself demonstrate that traders are overwhelmingly bullish. Every futures position has both a long and short side, so growing open interest primarily signals increased participation and leverage.

Still, the market’s scale means Anthropic is establishing a continuously traded crypto reference price before Wall Street has an official IPO price to work with.

Allaire tells Anthropic to embrace public scrutiny

That speculative market is developing as Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire urges Anthropic to complete the transition to the public markets.

“Take the leap, Anthropic,” Allaire said, arguing that concerns about volatile markets, valuation and AI safety strengthen rather than weaken the case for exposing the company to greater scrutiny.

Allaire drew on Circle’s experience after taking the USDC issuer public in June 2025. Circle priced its IPO at $31 per share, with the total offering reaching about $1.2 billion, including shares sold by existing shareholders and the full exercise of the underwriters’ overallotment option.

He said going public imposed audited financial reporting, quarterly disclosures, independent board governance, and Sarbanes-Oxley controls that made Circle easier for banks, governments, and enterprise customers to evaluate.

Allaire argued that frontier AI companies are approaching a similar point as their technology becomes embedded across businesses and economic infrastructure.

Model capabilities, safety procedures, computing commitments, revenue concentration and corporate governance are increasingly matters of public interest, he said, yet much of that information remains inside privately held companies.

An IPO would force Anthropic to disclose substantially more about its finances, dependencies and risks while exposing management decisions to investors, regulators and recurring reporting requirements.

Allaire also said an IPO cannot substitute for AI regulation, drawing a parallel with stablecoins, where he argued that public-market discipline and clearer rules developed alongside each other.

That argument leaves Anthropic approaching the public markets from two directions.

Traditional investors are waiting for its prospectus and the financial disclosures needed to judge whether a valuation approaching $2 trillion is justified. Crypto traders, meanwhile, have already built nearly $80 million in outstanding futures positions behind a market trying to answer that question in real time.

The gap should narrow once Anthropic makes its registration documents public. At that point, traders can compare the assumptions embedded in pre-IPO contracts with the revenue, costs, risks, and share structure Anthropic actually presents to prospective shareholders.