Bitcoin bull market hinges on $85K support and fresh buying: Bitfinex analysts

Bitcoin has held a dense $85,000–$86,500 buyer cost range after reaching $87,392, but Bitfinex analysts have said continued ETF and corporate purchases are needed to confirm a new bull market.

Bitfinex Alpha said in its Sep. 23 report that Bitcoin’s advance from its July 1 low of $57,803 has reached a test that separated lasting bull markets from failed recoveries in previous cycles. The analysts have identified the $85,000–$86,500 range as the largest concentration of recent buyer cost bases. Holding that area would show that buyers who entered during the rally are willing to keep their positions through a pullback.

Why Bitcoin’s $85K buyer range matters

According to Bitfinex, about 633,000 $BTC last changed hands between $85,000 and $86,500, creating the largest cost range in its price distribution data. Buyers also moved roughly 2.95 million $BTC into profit over four trading sessions as Bitcoin climbed. The amount of supply concentrated between $80,500 and $82,500 fell from 252,000 $BTC to 170,000 $BTC per $1,000 price band between Sunday and Tuesday.

For the analysts, the new concentration beneath spot price offers a more useful test than the speed of the rally itself. A drop through the range would put many recent buyers back at a loss; sustained buying above it would show that demand is continuing after the breakout.

The distinction matters because forced purchases by traders closing short positions can lift prices quickly without creating a lasting source of demand. In earlier coverage of the rally, crypto.news reported that Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard attributed part of Bitcoin’s move above $84,000 to a short squeeze alongside renewed ETF buying. He warned that weaker fund inflows or rising U.S. Treasury yields could leave the advance exposed to a reversal.

Bitfinex places the next price test near Bitcoin’s yearly open of $87,722. Its analysts expect a hold above the $85,000–$86,500 range to leave $90,000 in view if ETF inflows continue and futures funding stays neutral. Below the buyer range, they identify the corporate treasury cohort’s cost near $80,500 as the first support area. A sustained move below $81,300, particularly alongside ETF outflows, would challenge their reading of the breakout.

ETF and corporate purchases need to continue above cost

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million on Sep. 21 and another $714.7 million on Sep. 22, Bitfinex reported. Monday’s dollar inflow was the largest since Oct. 6, 2025, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high. Across four sessions ending Sep. 22, the funds absorbed $2.31 billion, equivalent to roughly 27,900 $BTC at each day’s average price, according to the report.

The buying followed a $450.4 million ETF outflow on Sep. 15, which Bitfinex called the funds’ largest daily withdrawal since June. For U.S. investors using listed spot funds, the next flow figures will show whether purchases continue now that the aggregate ETF investor cost basis is near $86,000. Bitfinex said the ETF and corporate treasury cohorts held profitable positions at the same time this week for the first time since January.

Corporate filings provide a second measure. As reported in Strategy’s SEC filing, the company bought 950 $BTC for $75.7 million during the week ending Sep. 20, lifting its holdings to 846,000 $BTC. The filing also showed $174 million spent repurchasing STRC preferred shares. Strategy used existing cash for both transactions and made no sales through its stock offering programs that week.

Bitfinex also counted Strive’s purchase of 1,355 $BTC between Sep. 14 and 18. Together, the two companies acquired 2,305 $BTC in one week, compared with roughly 5,900 $BTC acquired by all public treasuries over the preceding three months, the report said. Both purchases were executed below the analysts’ estimated $80,500 average cost for the corporate treasury cohort.

“The critical test will be whether both cohorts maintain continuous net buying above their respective cost basis,” Bitfinex said. Purchases that appear only after prices fall below investors’ average entry may support a decline, but the analysts said they would not establish the continuing demand needed for a sustained advance.

Holder data has yet to confirm a bull market

On-chain readings give Bitfinex another way to check whether the rally survives its first setback. The share of Bitcoin supply held at a profit rose from 63% on Sep. 17 to 78.2% on Sep. 22. The analysts want the measure to stay above 75% during the first correction; a fall below that line would indicate that holders newly returned to profit had sold into the move.

Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, or MVRV, stood at 1.62 on Sep. 22, below its long-run average of about 1.8, according to Bitfinex. The analysts associate that average with a Bitcoin price near $95,000 at the current realized price. They said crossing and holding it alongside ETF inflows would strengthen the bull-market case, while a failed attempt would resemble earlier recoveries that ran out of demand.

Recent buyers remain in profit as well. Bitfinex put short-term holder MVRV at 1.20 against a cohort cost basis of $71,763. The report said readings of 1.3 to 1.4 would correspond to a price above $93,000, an area where recent buyers have historically become more likely to take profits.

Long-term holders offer a less settled signal. Bitfinex said the group sold coins through late August, and its aggregate position change remained negative, though selling had slowed. Its latest available long-term holder spent-output profit ratio was 0.77 on Sep. 16, meaning coins spent by that group were changing hands below their average acquisition cost. The analysts want the ratio to rise above 1.0 while Bitcoin holds its price, showing that the market can absorb sales from holders taking profits.

Bitfinex identified $87,000–$90,000 as the break-even area for buyers from January whose coins have since aged into the long-term holder group. Its report also put Bitcoin about 12% above the $76,677 True Market Mean and 63% above the $52,785 realized price as of its analysis.