Bitcoin Keeps Rising as Gold Turns Bearish: Is BTC Breaking Away From the Macro Rate Trade?

Bitcoin has held above $80,000 as gold weakens and Federal Reserve officials warn that inflation requires restrictive monetary policy.

Their diverging performance raises a question: whether Bitcoin can absorb pressure from higher interest rates better than gold, even as rising Treasury yields keep the macroeconomic backdrop in focus.

Bitcoin and Gold Move Apart

The reported correlation between Bitcoin and gold has approached minus 0.9 for the first time in three years, indicating opposite price movements. However, that reading alone does not confirm that Bitcoin has decoupled from interest-rate pressures.

Wise Crypto highlighted a roughly 70% decline in the $BTC/gold ratio, describing comparable historical declines as bottoming zones. That longer-term relative decline differs from the recent divergence, during which Bitcoin has shown resilience while gold has weakened.

Fed Warnings Keep Rate Pressure in Focus

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that prolonged inflation could change how households and businesses view rising prices. “The biggest risk that I see with inflation right now is that an inflationary mindset could start to set in,” she said.

Inflation has exceeded the Fed’s target for more than five years. July’s personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 3.7% from a year earlier, above the central bank’s 2% goal. The Fed raised its benchmark range to 3.75%–4% this month, while officials projected another increase before year-end. Hammack did not specify her preferred next rate decision.

She said real rates accounted for more of the increase in government bond yields than inflation expectations. She attributed the rise in yields to economic strength, technology investment competing for capital, and adjustments to monetary policy expectations.

Price Levels Test Bitcoin’s Resilience

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin trades above its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages but below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. The split leaves short-term strength alongside a weaker longer-term technical picture.

Analysts identify resistance at $71,645, $73,687, and $75,930, with support at $69,423 and $67,167. Those levels act as reference points for assessing whether the resilience continues or fades.

Related: Bitcoin vs Gold Debate Grows as Analyst Sees $BTC Rotation Ahead