Bitcoin Falls Lower as Trump's Iran Snub Sends Oil, Yields Higher

Zoom out, though, and that dip looks small compared to the gains the cryptocurrency experienced last month. Bitcoin spent most of the year in a heavy bear trend.

August and early September changed everything: a sharp breakout candle blew Bitcoin’s price from the mid-$70,000s past $80,000 in a matter of days, kicking off a rally that carried Bitcoin to a high near $87,354 before the market cooled into the consolidation it’s stuck in now.

The chart still leans bullish under the hood. The 50-day moving average sits comfortably above the 200-day, a pattern known as a golden cross that’s held since the September breakout. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with numbers below 30 suggesting oversold and above 70 overbought.

For Bitcoin, RSI currently reads 58.7, firmly bullish territory without flashing overbought. A golden cross occurs when the average price of the last 50 days is higher than that of the last 200 days. When this happens, it means the coin is on a reliable bullish trend and people are flocking to buy the asset.

Trend strength measured by the Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at a solid 43.2—well above the 25 mark that confirms a trend—and volatility is picking back up rather than dying down. None of that guarantees the dip doesn’t go deeper, but it does mean Monday’s pullback looks more like digestion than reversal—for now.

Blame the Iran war, or blame the Fed. Probably both

In terms of likely catalysts, President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil traders didn’t like it. Brent crude jumped back above $100 a barrel on the news, and a stronger dollar plus rising Treasury yields followed close behind. That’s a rough combo for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies are cooling alongside it. BNB is down 1.98% over 24 hours and 4.28% over the week. Hyperliquid’s HYPE has had it worse, off nearly 4% today and more than 6% over seven days. Zcash and XRP are among the rare bright spots on the weekly chart, up 3.61% and 1.26% respectively, though both are red today too.

Total crypto market capitalization sits around $2.86 trillion, down 1.7% on the day. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index still reads 70, comfortably in “greed” territory, while the Altcoin Season Index sits at 63, tilting toward alts but not fully there.

Derivatives markets are the one place still running hot. Open interest sits at $382.29 billion, up 8.17%, and 24-hour derivatives volume has spiked 66.28% to $838.18 billion. Liquidations over the past 24 hours total $478 million, split $386.5 million long and only $87.95 million short, a lopsided ratio that shows leveraged bulls have been the ones getting squeezed as the market rolled over.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, are still net positive, extending a run that began in mid-September and has kept institutional demand from cratering even as price action cools.

There’s no Federal Reserve meeting any time soon, but the week ahead is stacked with the data that will decide the next one. Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings, Wednesday brings the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and Friday closes things out with the September jobs report.

That data will land three weeks after the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, a unanimous 12-0 vote on September 16 that lifted the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Fed Governor Michael Barr has since said further tightening is likely needed to bring inflation back to target, and traders have taken note. Higher rates make cash and bonds pay more, pulling money out of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. They also strengthen the dollar and raise the cost of leveraged trading, a double headwind for risk appetite.

CME’s FedWatch tool currently prices roughly a 64% chance of another quarter-point hike when the Fed’s Open Market Committee meets again on October 27-28, down from the 75% odds traders were pricing in a few days ago but still elevated enough to keep a lid on risk appetite heading into the week’s data.