Citi raises its Strategy price target to $240 from $136 as a higher Bitcoin forecast and expected mNAV expansion strengthen its MSTR outlook.
Citi has raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $240 from $136 while keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The revision follows the bank’s higher Bitcoin forecast, with Citi now expecting $BTC to reach about $113,400 over the next 12 months.
$MSTR – CITI RAISES STRATEGY TARGET TO $240 ON HIGHER BITCOIN FORECAST
Citi raised its Strategy price target to $240 from $136, maintaining a Buy rating after lifting its 12-month Bitcoin forecast 39% to $113,400.
Citi sees roughly 34% upside contribution from Bitcoin…
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The new MSTR target represents a 76.5% increase from Citi’s previous $136 estimate. With Strategy closing around $160.50 on Oct. 1, a move to $240 would require roughly another 49.5% gain.
Citi’s valuation framework splits that potential upside between a higher Bitcoin price and an expansion in the premium investors are willing to pay for Strategy relative to its underlying $BTC holdings.
Bitcoin Appreciation Accounts for Most of Citi’s MSTR Upside
Citi sees about 34% of MSTR’s potential upside coming from Bitcoin appreciation.
That assumption follows the bank’s decision to raise its 12-month Bitcoin target by roughly 39%, from $82,000 to approximately $113,400.
Strategy’s stock has historically moved closely with Bitcoin because $BTC represents the core asset on its balance sheet. The company also uses equity, preferred securities, and debt to fund its treasury strategy, which can amplify changes in Bitcoin value at the common-stock level.
This means Citi’s higher $BTC forecast directly increases the value it assigns to MSTR.
Citi Also Expects Strategy’s mNAV Premium to Expand
Another 16% of the expected upside comes from Citi’s assumption that Strategy’s mNAV multiple will increase.
mNAV compares Strategy’s market valuation with the net value of its Bitcoin holdings and other balance-sheet items. A figure above 1.0 means investors are valuing MSTR at a premium to the underlying net assets.
Citi’s updated model assumes an mNAV of about 1.24x.
The bank also increased what it calls its Bitcoin Yield Multiple to 4.0x from 2.5x, giving Strategy a higher valuation for its ability to increase Bitcoin exposure per share through capital-market activity.
The two components broadly explain Citi’s new MSTR target. A roughly 34% benefit from its Bitcoin assumption combined with about 16% from mNAV expansion produces close to the 50% upside needed to move MSTR from around $160.50 to $240.
Strategy Remains Highly Sensitive to Bitcoin
Citi’s target therefore depends heavily on Bitcoin reaching the bank’s higher forecast and MSTR maintaining a premium to its underlying $BTC value.
If Bitcoin underperforms the $113,400 assumption or Strategy’s mNAV contracts instead of expanding, the valuation model would change. Conversely, stronger Bitcoin performance or a larger MSTR premium could alter the upside case.
For now, Citi’s latest update raises both sides of the equation: a higher Bitcoin forecast and a higher valuation multiple for Strategy, resulting in the jump from a $136 MSTR target to $240.