Bitcoin’s ($BTC) long-term valuation model, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, is suggesting that the cryptocurrency remains below its historical trend valuation as October begins.
The outlook comes as Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $90,000 level, a move that could have opened the door to a push toward six-figure valuations.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,584, while remaining above its 50-day SMA of $78,136 and 200-day SMA of $71,404, indicating the broader uptrend remains intact.
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Although the Rainbow Chart’s October 31 valuation bands sit well above Bitcoin’s current price, the indicator is designed to gauge long-term valuation rather than forecast where $BTC will trade by month-end.
According to the chart, the highest valuation zone on October 31 is ‘Maximum Bubble Territory’ at $1.36 million, a band historically associated with extreme market euphoria and cycle tops.
Below it sits ‘Sell. Seriously, SELL!’ at $998,844, a zone linked to historically stretched valuations and heightened profit-taking. The ‘FOMO Intensifies’ band stands at $733,467, representing periods when speculative demand accelerates.
Next is ‘Is this a bubble?’ at $547,041, followed by ‘HODL!’ at $396,987, a region generally considered fair value. The ‘Still cheap’ band sits at $287,747, while ‘Accumulate’ is positioned at $209,292, both indicating undervaluation relative to Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
The ‘BUY!’ band stands at $153,802, representing significant undervaluation, while the lowest band, ‘Basically a Fire Sale,’ is located at $115,355, a zone historically associated with deep discounts and extreme market pessimism.
With Bitcoin currently trading at $84,584, the cryptocurrency remains below the chart’s lowest valuation band, highlighting the gap between current market prices and the model’s long-term trajectory.
Bitcoin short-term outlook
While the Rainbow Chart focuses on long-term valuation, crypto analyst Ali Martinez is watching a much nearer-term price level.
According to Martinez in an X post on October 3, Bitcoin’s recent rally toward $87,000 stalled after whales reportedly took profits on more than 30,000 $BTC. The $87,000 region also coincided with the upper boundary of a trading channel that has capped prices for more than two weeks.
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Bitcoin’s recent surge toward $87,000 was compromised before it even got going.
Not only were whales taking profits on the way up, selling more than 30,000 $BTC, but $87,000 also marked the top of the channel that has rejected Bitcoin for more… https://t.co/C1Szjow1Df pic.twitter.com/hNG1p6dbym
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 3, 2026
Following the rejection, Martinez identified $82,500 as the immediate downside target. The analyst argued that if Bitcoin falls to that level and whale accumulation resumes, it could provide confirmation for another rebound attempt toward $87,000.
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