Bitcoin is about to get a major bullish signal it hasn't had in over a year

Bitcoin $BTC$86,205.31 is down today, but its wider trend is telling a different story.

The simple moving averages of its price over the past 50-, 100- and 200-days are one “crossover” away from a full bullish alignment, where the cryptocurrency’s short-, medium-, and long-term trends al point higher at once. It would be the first since 2025.

That alignment is represented by the 50-day average sitting above the 100-day, and the 100-day sitting above the 200-day. It’s almost there. As of this writing, the 50-day average, at $79,495, is well above the other two. Meanwhile, the 100-day, currently at $79,493, his rising and on the verge of topping the 200-day at $79,539. When that happens, all three will be stacked in an order that showcases bullish momentum across all three time frames.

“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.

Traders use moving averages to read the direction of a trend. When short-term moving averages sit above the long-term ones, it signals that recent prices are stronger than older ones, a sign of upward momentum.

The impending signal, therefore, suggests that bitcoin’s price recovery over the past three months is real. The token’s price has surged by more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter. Lately, the ascent has stalled at around $85,000 amid a sustained uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index.

“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.

Some of the past alignments have marked the start of major rallies. One formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when $BTC traded around $13,600, and held until May 2021. By then, bitcoin had hit a then-record high above $64,000. Another, confirmed in early November 2023, stayed intact until May 2024, during which bitcoin more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.

Others have been far less rewarding. The bullish alignment that formed in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but bitcoin gained only modestly, rising from about $106,000 to $112,000. A similar set-up in June 2024 lasted just 20 days, and bitcoin fell about 10%.

“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”

He explained that the real test now is whether bitcoin’s spot price can continue to stay above its 50-day average.

“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.