Bitcoin to $100K in weeks? Analysts weigh the Uptober case

In Brekken’s view, investors who no longer consider themselves early to the artificial intelligence trade could turn to crypto as their next choice among risk assets. He described the change as an “attention transfer,” attributing the earlier drain on liquidity to the SpaceX offering.

Other analysts tied their recovery forecasts to measurable buying rather than investor attention alone. Bitfinex’s team identified $84,000 as the immediate support to defend, while Nansen and Bitget Wallet researchers cautioned against treating October’s seasonal record as evidence of a market bottom.

Bitcoin’s $84,000 support could leave shorts exposed

According to Bitfinex Alpha’s latest update, Bitcoin fell below $84,000 overnight ahead of the Oct. 7 Federal Reserve minutes, triggering a wave of forced position closures.

The team put total crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours at $510.6 million, including $417.6 million in long positions. Roughly $300 million of the long liquidations occurred within an hour as Bitcoin broke below the support level, the analysts said.

Despite the selloff, Bitfinex reported that open interest across major perpetual trading venues was 0.5% higher on the morning of Oct. 7 than on Oct. 5. The analysts interpreted the relatively steady number of outstanding positions as evidence that fresh trades replaced longs forced out of the market.

With average annualized funding rates edging lower but remaining positive between 5% and 6.5% throughout the week, the team attributed much of the new positioning to short sellers.

“If $BTC holds $84,000, late short positions become trapped below this key level.”

A rise in spot purchases could put those traders under pressure and carry Bitcoin toward, or above, its $87,722 yearly opening price, according to the analysts.

Bitfinex’s earlier assessment placed 867,000 $BTC in the $84,000 cost-basis cluster, the largest concentration identified by its analysis. The team also described that price as the dividing line at which 75% of Bitcoin’s supply sits in profit.

The failed $87,197 breakout lacked spot buying

In Bitfinex’s account, last Friday’s advance relied mainly on futures trading. Open interest increased by $2.1 billion during the 24 hours before the September U.S. payrolls report, then contracted by $1.5 billion as the report was released.

Without enough spot purchases to sustain the move, the analysts said Bitcoin retreated toward $84,000 after its third rejection below the yearly open in two weeks.

Their base case remained consolidation between $84,000 and $87,722, with an upward break depending on ETF inflows returning toward September’s daily average of $340 million.

In an Oct. 6 report on Bitcoin’s stalled recovery, the team said several ETF sessions attracting at least $340 million each, combined with a daily close above $87,722, would support a move toward $90,000.

The same assessment placed ETF investors’ estimated average purchase price at $84,320, using Checkonchain’s flow-weighted calculation. According to Bitfinex, holders had spent 233 consecutive days below that level before Bitcoin reclaimed it on Sep. 21.

For the analysts, a return to breakeven helps explain weaker buying appetite, since inflows have historically accelerated when ETF investors hold a larger profit cushion.

ETF outflows have not unsettled DWF Labs’ Lee

Martin Lee, head of content and data insights at DWF Labs, said he was “not too concerned” about Monday’s roughly $90 million withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs.

Lee described Sep. 21–25 as the funds’ strongest inflow week this year, with about $2.4 billion arriving, followed by another $241 million the next week. In his assessment, both preceding months had produced strong inflows.

A Sep. 26 report documenting September’s ETF inflows put the Sep. 21–25 total at $2.39 billion, according to Farside Investors. BlackRock’s IBIT received $1.16 billion, Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $701.6 million and $ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added $294.7 million.

Across the year, Lee counted negative flows on 93 of 190 trading days, or about 48%, despite net inflows of $1.2 billion.

For Lee, weekly and monthly totals carry more weight than individual sessions, although he said the withdrawals warrant monitoring. Bitfinex’s concern centers instead on the pace of new purchases: its figures show weekly inflows falling from $2.39 billion to $241.1 million.

October’s record does not establish a bottom

Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, said Bitcoin has delivered a median October return of roughly 14% since 2013, with gains in 10 of the past 13 Octobers.

However, Kennis rejected the idea that those monthly results establish Oct. 5 as a dependable turning point.

“Ultimately liquidity, positioning, macro conditions, and underlying demand are more important drivers than any specific date.”

Kennis cited Bitcoin’s 2.7% seven-day gain as positive momentum entering October, while cautioning that it did not confirm a calendar-driven bottom. He identified post-September positioning and improving risk appetite as possible contributors to the historical “Uptober” pattern.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said:

“This year, Bitcoin’s bottom may already have formed near $57,000. What matters more from here is the direction of macro liquidity and ETF flows rather than any specific seasonal date.”

Zhang also said weaker altcoins can take longer to bottom, even when they follow Bitcoin’s market cycle.

In an Oct. 5 assessment of Bitcoin’s conditional upside, Zhang identified $90,000–$93,000 as possible targets if Treasury yields decline and inflation figures support the weaker employment reading. She required a daily or weekly close above roughly $87,400, continued ETF inflows, and stronger spot purchases before calling the move a convincing breakout.

For the next U.S. inflation test, Bitfinex’s analysts pointed to September CPI on Oct. 14, saying the release could end Bitcoin’s trading range.