Bitcoin is flashing a signal that preceded 34% average gains: is $100K next?

Confirmation of the crossover would strengthen the technical recovery case, although it would not establish a reliable price target or timetable.

Macroeconomic pressure shows signs of easing

Bitcoin’s October correction may be approaching exhaustion after elevated Treasury yields, expensive oil, weaker ETF demand and profit-taking pressured the market.

As of October 13, markets assigned approximately an 18% probability to an October Federal Reserve rate increase.

Brent crude had also retreated from nearly $110 to around $105 a barrel. That decline offered some relief, although energy prices remained elevated.

The November 3 US midterm elections could influence sentiment as investors gain greater clarity about the political outlook. A closely contested Senate remains a source of uncertainty.

In addition to these, several onchain developments are also supporting Bitcoin’s potential-bottom thesis.

Bitcoin exchange reserves remain relatively low despite a recent increase, suggesting readily available exchange supply is contained compared with earlier levels.

Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric has also recovered sharply from deeply negative territory. It remains below zero, however, so the improvement does not yet indicate a positive reading.

Meanwhile, whale holdings have risen to approximately 3 million BTC and remained elevated during the correction, suggesting large holders have maintained or increased exposure.

These indicators complement the emerging golden cross, but confirmation of a durable recovery will still depend on sustained demand and price strength.

Bitcoin technical forecast: Three-day Golden Cross approaches confirmation

Bitcoin’s 20-period exponential moving average on the three-day chart is nearing a move above its 200-period EMA.

This configuration, known as a golden cross, signals that shorter-term price momentum has improved relative to the longer-term trend.

The crossover could form this week if the price recovery holds. A sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows would provide additional evidence of strengthening demand.

However, moving averages reflect past prices. The signal can therefore appear after a substantial recovery has already occurred and does not rule out subsequent pullbacks.

This pattern is a crucial one, as three earlier occurrences of a similar moving-average configuration have yielded massive surges in price.

Bitcoin rose approximately 50.73% following the 2019 pattern, 18.38% around the 2020 occurrence, and 32.23% during the 2023–2024 instance.

Those moves produced an average gain of 33.78%. The sample is small, and the rallies unfolded over different periods.

If the pattern plays out, Bitcoin could end the year trading above the $100,000 psychological level.

However, the average should be treated as historical context rather than an expected return, a 30-day forecast, or a guaranteed outcome.

At the moment, bulls would need to surpass the $87,438 resistance level to bring $90,000 back into view for the first time since January, a move likely to attract renewed interest across major trading platforms.

However, a sustained decline below the longer-term moving average would weaken the bullish interpretation.