Ethereum’s quantum race takes a new turn as zkSync courts banks and Starknet weighs exit

The Ethereum Foundation defines real-time proving as 99% of mainnet blocks proven in 10 seconds or less, which fits Ethereum’s 12-second slot and propagation assumptions.

ZkSync’s result maps to that definition, including witness preparation, with every block finishing in under 12 seconds.

Airbender Prime uses hash-based STARKs that combine GKR sumcheck, WHIR polynomial commitments, and BLAKE2s hashing, with Keccak-256-based commitments for L1 proofs replacing BN254 pairings.

Nvidia rates the card at 600 watts of board power, and marketplace reporting puts it near $16,000. The Foundation’s target framework also covers proof sizes under 300 KiB, a long-term 128-bit security level, on-premise capital spending near $100,000, and power draw under 10 kilowatts.

Full-system electricity use, proof sizes and long-term operating costs for Prime await independent measurement, and the Foundation’s public proving program continues to evaluate security and reliability.

One layer of the Ethereum quantum stack

Ethereum’s ECDSA account signatures, BLS validator signatures and KZG data commitments belong to separate protocol-level work, and the December 2029 target stands as published, a schedule the Foundation calls aggressive. The prover operates outside Ethereum’s consensus protocol.

Quantum preparation arrives while standalone chains struggle to pay their way. Blast set an Oct. 26 user-exit deadline, saying maintenance costs exceeded revenue, and Abstract is shutting down.

Aave’s risk provider LlamaRisk recommended winding down V3 deployments on six chains, including zkSync, saying zkSync, Scroll and Sonic each generated less than $5,000 in quarterly protocol revenue at current balances.

The evidence points to consolidation and specialization, and many layer-2 (L2) blockchains keep operating. Cheap execution earns too little on its own, and liquidity, distribution, compliance, and institutional access are becoming the defensible layers.

Starknet’s proving layer already rests on hash functions, according to StarkWare’s June roadmap, with its Ethereum dependencies sitting in bridge messaging and blob data availability.

Becoming an L1 would bring those surfaces under Starknet’s control and let it set its own timeline. The idea remains under consideration and would need governance approval and engineering execution.

ZkSync is investing in technology useful to Ethereum’s own architecture and pointing its commercial effort at regulated finance. Starknet explores independence from the base layer, and zkSync builds components for it.

The bank pivot is documented

Matter Labs’ third-quarter report says it prioritized private institutional interoperability over public Gateway interoperability.

Institutions building on its Prividium platform asked for private execution, direct Ethereum settlement, and atomic transfers between Prividium chains. The report removed the interop fees from the original public Gateway proposal and lists the private-interoperability fee model as ongoing work.

Matter Labs says Deutsche Bundesbank is testing Prividium’s open-source permissioning engine in its own infrastructure, which lets regulated institutions run and inspect core code themselves.

The Cari case study from zkSync describes five founding US regional bank partners holding more than $8 trillion in assets. A zkSync-hosted summary puts the broader network at more than 30 institutions with over $10 trillion in combined assets.

Any link between Prividium usage and ZK token demand awaits a published fee model.

Where the Ethereum split goes from here

If Airbender Prime and similar systems keep meeting the Foundation’s security, cost, proof-size, and on-premise targets, zkSync could supply proof infrastructure for Ethereum’s route toward independently verifiable execution while Prividium pilots grow into fee-paying deployments.

That path gives former L2 teams a role as suppliers to the base layer and to regulated finance.

If Prividium deployments remain pilots, private-interoperability fees stay unfinished and public zkSync activity stays weak, the market reads zkSync as a prover stack with a technical result and a thin commercial one.

A compressed quantum timeline would add urgency to Starknet’s L1 option and push Ethereum to accelerate its account, consensus, and data-layer migrations.

Ethereum’s quantum preparations and its scaling sector are being restructured together, and each L2 team is picking among a sovereign chain, a supplier role to Ethereum, a bank-grade vendor business, or consolidation.