Is Bitcoin Going Down To $75,000? Why Saylor’s Cost Basis Is The Level To Watch

Since launching in January 2024, the ETFs have taken in a net $57 billion, so last week’s outflow is only about 1.2% of that total. Higher bond yields may explain some of the selling. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31% last Monday, its highest close of the year, which gives investors a safer alternative.

He also compared it with a much worse stretch earlier this year. From mid-May to early July, the ETFs saw eight straight weeks of outflows totalling about $8.3 billion, more than 12 times last week’s figure. Bitcoin fell from around $80,700 to below $59,000 in that period, a drop of more than 25%. ETFs have also recorded outflows on roughly half of all trading days this year, which he called normal.

Strategy buys stock instead of Bitcoin

Strategy bought just 250 $BTC for $21.5 million between October 5 and 11, its smallest purchase of 2026. In the same week, it spent $192.4 million buying back its own STRC preferred shares, almost nine times what it put into Bitcoin.

The company now holds 848,250 $BTC at an average cost of $75,444.

Who sold

Much of the selling came from leveraged traders. On Binance, open interest in Bitcoin futures fell from about 97,400 $BTC to about 92,400 $BTC over the week, a drop of roughly 5%. Funding rates have fallen to near zero, showing that excess leverage has been cleared out.

Not all the data is positive. About 25,000 $BTC moved onto exchanges on October 6 alone, and another 5,300 $BTC net between October 8 and 11. Coins moving to exchanges can signal that holders are preparing to sell.

Who is buying

The analyst found two forces holding Bitcoin up. The first is spot buyers. On Binance, the share of volume from aggressive buyers was only about 49% on October 7 and 8. From October 9, it flipped to 55.6%, then 52.7%, then 56.3%. Buyers stepped in right after the low, in the spot market rather than in futures.

The second, and the most important, is long-term holders. About 63% of all Bitcoin has not moved in more than a year. “Those coins are not for sale at 83K, and they were not for sale at 80K either,” he said. When ETFs sell 8,000 $BTC into a market where most supply is sitting still, the price impact is limited.

He also pointed to the true market mean, the average cost of active investors, at about $79,250. Last week’s low stopped just above it before buyers stepped in.

What the chart says next

The analyst sees two paths, and he treats them as roughly equally likely.

• The bullish path: The bounce from $80,944 starts a stronger leg higher, with a near-term target of $84,177 to $86,232. After that, the daily chart points to $88,597 to $97,637. This view fails if Bitcoin falls below $80,393.
• The careful path: The current rally is only a temporary bounce that runs out at $84,956 to $85,434, inside a resistance zone that extends to $86,600. A rejection there would bring another leg down.

A clear break above $86,600 would make the bullish path more likely.

$75,000 level matters most

The analyst’s support zone runs from $63,326 to $74,840. He stressed this is not a target, only a safety net. The top of that zone sits close to two key cost levels:

• Strategy’s average cost: $75,444
• Short-term holders’ average cost: about $74,400

At that level, both the largest corporate holder and the average new buyer would be back at breakeven. Whether they hold or start selling there could decide Bitcoin’s next big move. The analyst said that if a deeper correction comes, the area around $75,000 is where he would likely start buying.