Bitcoin Faces a Major Roadblock as Glassnode Flags Critical Price Level

Market participants who accumulated BTC between six and twelve months ago hold an average acquisition price of $88,000. Those who entered between one and two years ago carry a cost basis around $100,000.

Both valuation ceilings coincided with previous pullbacks during the current year. The price approached the first benchmark in January before retreating more than 33%, while in May it neared $100,000 before seeing a contraction close to 25%.

According to the Glassnode report, the asset would need to break above $88,000 to neutralize the selling flow from those seeking to close positions at break-even. The document emphasizes that absorbing this supply will depend on a sustained resurgence in spot demand.

Institutional capital flows showed signs of slowing at the start of the second week of the month. Between September 21 and October 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in nearly $3 billion in net inflows.

That buying momentum stalled on October 7, giving way to net redemptions totaling approximately $760 million over subsequent trading sessions. Firm estimates suggest that a positive reversal in these vehicles would provide confirmation of buyer strength.

Resistance at $88,000 and Support at the Institutional Baseline

Despite the temporary softening in ETFs, the price held prior structural levels. The average cost basis for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds sits at $81,500, a mark the market briefly slipped below on October 8 and 13 before recovering.

The on-chain report highlights dense clusters of buy orders around $80,000 on Binance. Meanwhile, the network’s True Market Mean metric is positioned at $78,000.

Glassnode notes that a sustained loss of $80,000 could trigger further liquidations across the derivatives market. In contrast, a push toward $88,000 could force short liquidations, provided spot volume supports the move.

On the supply side, pressure from long-term holders showed a notable decline. Their realized losses dropped 85% compared to the highs recorded in mid-August.

During the June lows, twelve coins were sold at a loss for every unit liquidated in profit. That balance recently flipped, registering a ratio of four coins sold in profit for every transaction at a loss.

Glassnode indicates that this dynamic mirrors early recovery phases in prior cycles. Unlike the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, the closing price remained 10% above its overall Realized Price during the June 30 low.

The macroeconomic backdrop introduced additional volatility after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The monthly figure climbed 0.6%, while the annualized rate stood at 3.7%, topping forecasts of 3.6%.

The financial calendar now turns to October 28, when the Federal Reserve will announce its next monetary policy decision on interest rates.