Bitcoin and Ethereum traded flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes. Markets expected volatility, but the crypto market showed little reaction.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% in July. The minutes confirmed that Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 bps cut.
FOMC Minutes Fail to Move Crypto Markets
The Fed described inflation as “somewhat elevated” and noted growth had “moderated” in the first half of 2025. Officials reaffirmed the 2% inflation target and pledged flexibility if risks emerge.
JULY FOMC MINUTES: INFLATION RISKS SEEN OUTWEIGHING JOBS & OFFICIALS WARN ON ASSET VALUATIONS
Polymarket odds now favor 2 rate cuts in 2025 — with +140 as the most likely scenario this year. pic.twitter.com/es1l2mPyjy
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) August 20, 2025
Markets had already priced in an 83% chance of a September rate cut. With no fresh signals in the minutes, crypto traders saw little reason to reprice risk. Attention now shifts to Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.
However, the silence in crypto markets reflects a bigger shift. Traders are watching Donald Trump’s escalating tariff measures, which now dominate inflation expectations.
Recent tariffs on semiconductors, electronics, and steel have raised costs for global producers. Sony, for example, raised PlayStation prices by $50 after tariffs on Japanese electronics. Brazil and India also face US trade penalties, fueling global tensions.
Tariffs complicate the Fed’s path. They add inflationary pressure, but also weigh on growth and exports. This leaves policymakers balancing two opposing forces—much harder to address than a standard economic slowdown.
While FOMC minutes are prepared to reflect the meeting in question, they are also undoubtedly used as a signalling tool…inflation risk > employment risk is the key takeaway…this is a Fed where, the majority at least, are in no hurry to cut…nor should they be…
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) August 20, 2025
Bigger Picture – Macro Collision Course
The clash between US monetary policy and Trump’s trade agenda sets up a collision course. The Fed faces a dilemma: cut rates to support slowing growth, or hold them high as tariffs push up prices. Either option risks missing one side of its dual mandate.
For crypto markets, this uncertainty looms larger than the Fed’s cautious July statement. Investors see trade policy as the wild card that could drive inflation higher, pressure global growth, and reshape safe-haven flows.
Until clarity emerges, Bitcoin and Ethereum may remain range-bound, waiting for the next decisive macro signal.
The post Crypto Shrugs at Fed Minutes as Trump’s Tariffs Take Center Stage appeared first on BeInCrypto.