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Bitcoin rebounded from $113K to $117K after Fed rate-cut hints.
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Analysts suggest a cycle peak could arrive within two months.
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Historical patterns point to a rally into Q4, then potential downside.
Bitcoin recently slipped below $113K, sparking concerns that momentum in the current cycle might be cooling off. But the market found its footing quickly, with prices rebounding to around $117K after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of future rate cuts.
This has injected a wave of optimism back into risk assets like Bitcoin. Investors and traders are now turning their attention to the next bigger question: when could Bitcoin mark the peak of this bull market?
How Close Is the Bitcoin Peak?
According to analyst Ali Martinez, if history repeats, then Bitcoin could be just two months away from its next major peak. If the pattern holds, then the market could be entering its most explosive phase yet, where price swings get sharper and the momentum builds fast.
Based on the last two Bitcoin $BTC cycles, the next market top could be just 2 months away. Things could get wild! pic.twitter.com/eQeInhtuUA
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 23, 2025
Merlijn The Trader notes that Bitcoin’s parabolic curve is entering its final act. The setup suggests that the base is complete and vertical lift-off is approaching. He highlights that every cycle ends the same way with a wave of euphoria followed by a sharp peak and an inevitable collapse.
Expert Benjamin Cowen has also said that Bitcoin tends to follow the same post-halving pattern: a rally in July–August, a dip in September, another push up into Q4 cycle tops, and then the start of a bear market.
But the difference this time lies in the scale, with far more liquidity and capital in play than ever before.
The Four-Year Cycle Debate
Many experts have argued that Bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle is breaking down, pointing to new forces such as ETF adoption, institutional money, and clear regulations that could drive Bitcoin beyond old patterns and make 2026 a strong year.
However, some voices like Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer and ETF analyst James Seyffart believe the cycle persists, but with milder swings.
Signals from On-Chain Data
Analyst Willy Woo notes that Bitcoin’s drop from $124,500 to $112,500 came from liquidations and speculation. With the MCR Risk Signal falling, liquidity is returning, and if that trend holds, Bitcoin could be set to climb higher.
CryptoQuant analysts also shared that dips are part of the cycle. In past bull runs, Bitcoin showed weakness about 480 days after the Halving but recovered soon after. If the pattern holds, the recent pullback could last only for 2-4 weeks before a rebound in late September or early October, making way for new highs.
Bitcoin is at a critical moment. The peak could come within months or extend into 2026, with signals pointing to volatility and upside.