It approached 90% after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered moderate remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.
While the market expects the Fed to make its first interest rate cut of 2025 in September, JPMorganChase said in a recent report that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in September.
In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell opened the door to the possibility of a rate cut, saying, “It’s time to change the policy stance.”
But JPMorganChase expects the Fed to delay a rate cut at its September FOMC meeting, despite Powell signaling a return to a rate cut on Friday.
JP Morgan economist Bruce Kasman predicted that the Fed will face serious infighting over the interest rate cut at its September meeting.
Kasman stated that if the Fed cuts interest rates early and inflation rises again, it will be more difficult to stop it.
“It will be difficult to achieve unanimity at the September meeting, and I anticipate that Chairman Powell will make the final decision.”
Kasman cited the strengthening of the number of dovish members and moderate voices within the Fed as reasons for this, and the decrease in the likelihood of a unanimous decision after moderate Stephen Miran joined the committee in place of Adriana Kugler.
JPMorgan added that rising inflation risks make a sudden cut unlikely.
*This is not investment advice.