Analyst Axel Adler Jr. indicates that the latest Bitcoin index readings show a combination of accumulation and distribution signals, in regards to the current cycle of Bitcoin. The chart shows the fluctuations in the movement of Bitcoin since 2023 to have been between periods of base-building and robust distribution waves, indicating the current position of the market.
In this cycle, two major accumulations are marked by the index: March 2023 (22K) and Aug-Sep 2023 (29K). These were followed by five distribution waves: 34–44K, 62K, 90K, 109K and 118K.
Current composite: Probability 38%, Min-Max 31% = Repair zone (digestion/base formation),… pic.twitter.com/OtGkjoZPsO
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 29, 2025
Key Accumulation Zones
This cycle has been influenced by two significant accumulation events. By March 2023, Bitcoin had stabilized at around $22,000 and established a solid foundation to drive upwards. In August-September 2023, a second accumulation at $29,000 followed. These phases marked investor confidence, which opened the way to further distribution rallies.
Bitcoin Distribution Waves Identified
After accumulation, Bitcoin proceeded to five phases of distribution, with the levels at 34K-44K, 62K, 90K, 109K, and 118K. The level is an indication of high selling pressure following sharp gains, and it is usually accompanied by overheated market conditions. The higher market exuberance was reflected at the $90K and $109K levels, with the last distribution cycle being noted at the $118K level.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin, as of late August 2025 is trading in a repair zone. The composite index has a probability of 38% and a min-max score of 31% which all represents digestion and base formation. This period is an initial accumulation action without the affirmation of sustained upward turnaround.
According to analysts, the market is seemingly stabilizing although it is still prone to volatility until the related indicators of stronger accumulation materialize. The traders will be keen on whether Bitcoin can gain ground at this level and then maybe looking forward to another breakout.
Outlook Ahead
Since historical trends appear to have cycles of accumulation and distribution peaks, the current area of repair might precondition the next rally. But as long as there is no upward movement that is confirmed, sentiment is subdued by caution. The index indicates that the market is still in a search mode that tries to find equilibrium between the buyers and sellers which implies that long-term investors may be forced to take time.