Traders who predict Bitcoin will reach its cycle-high price by the end of this year may be misunderstanding the principles of statistics, a Bitcoin analyst says.
It comes as several analysts have been forecasting the outcome for Bitcoin (BTC) in recent times.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” PlanC said in an X post on Friday.
“From a statistical and probability standpoint, it is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip MUST BE tails,” PlanC said, explaining that relying on the three previous halving cycles doesn’t provide enough statistically significant data.
No “fundamental reason” for Bitcoin to peak in Q4
The analyst also argued that the halving cycle is no longer relevant to Bitcoin, following recent debate in the industry over its relevance, especially with the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and significant inflows into the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“There is zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” he explained. Q4 has historically been the best-performing quarter on average for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass.
However, if the halving cycle is still in motion, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October, analysts have previously pointed out.
Traders have been divided in recent times over whether Bitcoin will peak at the end of the year.
Industry debates whether bull market will last in 2026
On Aug. 17, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg said there is a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
Others expect the bull market to continue into 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in July, “I bet 2026 is an up year.”
Meanwhile, several analysts have predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 before the year ends. In April 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projected that level, and just a month later, in May, Unchained Market Research Director Joe Burnett made the same prediction.