Bitcoin’s U.S. Google search volume has dropped to an 11-month low amid gold’s record-breaking surge, with experts signaling a potential for capital rotation into the bellwether crypto.
Google Trends data shows that Bitcoin’s search interest has dipped to lows last seen in October 2024, despite strong institutional ETF flows in early 2025.
The performance between the two assets reflects this diverging trend, with gold up 38% since the start of 2025 compared to Bitcoin’s 18%.
“This divergence reflects a fundamental shift in investor psychology toward safety over speculation amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty,” Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, told Decrypt.
Bitcoin has stagnated since May 2025, trading around $111,565, according to CoinGecko data. Gold, on the other hand, hit $3,613.48 today.
Search interest is “cyclical” and driven by “retail attention spikes,” Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC, told Decrypt. “Macro drivers such as the Fed rate-cut expectations, dollar weakness, and central-bank buying are powering gold to fresh records,” he explained.
Lim highlighted Bitcoin’s 15% lag below its all-time high in gold terms, underscoring the precious metal’s edge in risk-off environments, which are driven primarily by its “established narratives” and “universal acceptance.”
Gold hits record high: what next for Bitcoin?
Analysts have previously highlighted a lead-lag dynamic, where gold rallies precede Bitcoin’s outsized moves.
“Gold often moves first and then Bitcoin follows and outperforms,” Lawrence Lepard, co-founder of Equity Management Associates LLC, posted in an August tweet.
VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, echoed this sentiment in a tweet Saturday, stating that, “every gold rally sparks the same pattern: Bitcoin breaks out bigger.”
Every gold rally sparks the same pattern: Bitcoin breaks out bigger. pic.twitter.com/ylzi2BAxP8
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) September 6, 2025
Leopard predicted a gold breakout above $3,500 as a “prelude to $140,000 Bitcoin.”
Experts are cautiously optimistic. They expect Bitcoin and gold’s lead-lag pattern to persist if macro catalysts align.
Lim identified Fed rate cuts as a key trigger that could renew risk appetite and favor Bitcoin’s “higher-beta characteristics.”
Young requires sustained reflation expectations including moderated central bank gold purchases, as well as on-chain signals, to “flip marginal allocation from bullion back to Bitcoin.”
Both see rotations accelerating in risk-on shifts.
The consensus is bullish for Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative, with Lim forecasting a $120,000 to $150,000 target in 2025, with outliers to $200,000 in rotation scenarios.
Young projects $125,000 to $250,000 in a moderate bull case, driven by ETF trends and policy.
Lepard, however, envisions $250,000 alongside $10,000 gold amid fiat erosion, positioning Bitcoin as an “escape hatch” for growth cycles.
Traders on prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt‘s parent company DASTAN, are less optimistic; almost 60% expect gold to outperform Bitcoin in 2025.