The U.S. preliminary benchmark payrolls revision revealed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the one-year period ending March 2025, the largest on record.
The news suggests the labor market was far weaker than previously suggested by the government’s monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports. Those very closely watched reports are responsible for tens of billions of capital allocation decisions, not to mention playing a major factor in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Had those numbers been previously available, it’s highly likely that the Fed would have been trimming rates all through 2025. At the moment, the U.S. central bank is overwhelmingly expected to cut rates for the first time this year at its meeting next week. This news could put a 50 basis point rate cut on the table as opposed to the forecast 25.
Crypto, gold, bonds head higher on the news? Not so much
Traders in rate-sensitive assets like crypto, gold and long-dated bonds lodged another entry in the long history of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
In the minutes prior to the report, gold futures surged past $3,700 for the first time ever, while spot gold set a new all time high above $3,670. Just following the data, though, gold futures gave back their morning gains, now flat for the day at $3,679.
Bitcoin BTC$111,784.49, meanwhile, swiftly pulled back from the $113,000 level to $111,600 at press time, down 1% over the past 24 hours.
And U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, threatening to dip below 4% for the first time since February, rose to 4.07%.