Bitcoin’s Tech Stock Correlation Risks ‘Deeper Drawdowns’

Experts suggest Bitcoin’s lull in recent weeks could be tied to the performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq, as lingering macroeconomic factors continue to drag on both equities and crypto.

In a Tuesday tweet, crypto research platform Ecoinometrics argued that Bitcoin “faces a headwind from equities.” The firm’s analysts noted that Bitcoin often lags when the Nasdaq 100, an index made up of the U.S.’s top 100 companies, goes through “a mean reversion phase with below-average 12-month returns.”

The mean reversion theory posits that asset prices will eventually revert to their historical averages after experiencing extreme deviations. As a result, Bitcoin is more at “risk of deeper drawdowns, and that is where we are right now,” Ecoinometrics wrote.

The April 2025 tariffs-driven drawdown and the August 2024 and November 2022 bottoms show a pattern where the Nasdaq found its footing and began to recover. In each instance, Bitcoin lagged the Nasdaq 100 and then eventually followed suit.

But how likely is that this time around?

Data from CryptoQuant show the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has dropped close to zero. The last time these two assets decoupled in July 2025, the top crypto bounced 18% and reached a new all-time high. (Although BTC has since set another all-time high in August.)

This short-term decoupling has fueled a more optimistic outlook among other analysts.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt this recent drop in correlation is “driven by Bitcoin’s maturation as an independent asset class” and views this as a “neutral to bullish development.”

He suggests that “elevated U.S. unemployment rates and signs of economic slowdown could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat devaluation.”

Beyond the decoupling, another potential catalyst for a Bitcoin rally is the upcoming Fed meeting. Markets are firmly expecting a quarter-point rate cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Users on prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, agree—putting an almost 78% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September.

That scenario that could trigger a rally for the risk-on assets, according to experts who previously spoke to Decrypt—with Derive head of research Sean Dawson pointing to a “potent powder keg for volatility” as futures tied to Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge,’ the VIX, expire on the same day as the Fed’s interest rate decision.