A leading trader on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, who goes by the name JustWakingUp, is wagering that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week.
According to X handle Polymarket Whales, JustWakingUp is the platform’s most prolific trader, boasting nearly $400 million in total trading volume to date and profits exceeding $2 million.
The trader has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will reduce rates by 50 bps to 3.75% next week and is already showing a 3% gain on the position as of writing. The trader stands to make roughly $226,000 if the Fed does cut rates by 5 bps.
The market, however, largely expects the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point cut next week, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability to such an outcome.
That said, the odds of a jumbo 50 bps cut have surged to nearly 10% following Friday’s disappointing August jobs report, reflecting growing expectations of more aggressive easing. BlackRock and StanChart have called for a 50 bps cut.
Adding to market expectations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously estimated, marking the largest annual downward revision on record.
Traders are now closely watching Wednesday’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index data releases. Softer-than-expected readings could add to expectations for a 50 bps cut, potentially sending bitcoin and stocks higher.