British Giant CF Benchmarks Announces Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast! "Rise on the Way, Historical Correlation Signals Again!"

Bitcoin and altcoins are on the rise as expectations rise for a 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next week.

BTC rose above $114,000, Ethereum (ETH) rose above $4,400, and XRP above $3.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has reached $0.25, posting a 5% daily gain for a total gain of 15.9% over the past week.

This Historical Correlation Points to a Rise in Bitcoin!

While BTC is trending upwards, British giant CF Benchmarks has claimed that Bitcoin is currently below its fair value range compared to US M2 growth.

CF Benchmarks analysts noted that the difference between M2 growth and BTC price is the highest since August 2024, making it a strong entry point.

Analysts said that the widening gap between M2 growth and the BTC price has historically led to significant price increases in Bitcoin.

At this point, analysts said that similar divergences between M2 growth and Bitcoin in 2016, 2019 and 2021 were a sign of significant increases.

“Over the last decade, BTC has shown a positive correlation with M2, with M2 monetary growth typically lagging the price by about three months.

If this historical correlation continues, Bitcoin could also see liquidity support rise later in the fourth quarter.”

The Bulls Still Haven’t Won!

While the difference between M2 growth and Bitcoin is bullish for the price, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that from a technical perspective, bulls still have levels to hold.

Speaking to Coindesk, Kuptsikevich stated that Bitcoin’s current battle is at $112,000 and argued that $115,000 is important for the rise.

“Bitcoin continues to attract buyers on intraday dips, forming a soft and rather fragile uptrend, with the main challenge currently around $112,000.

The real test is around $115,000, just above the 50-day moving average.

Staying above this level could signal a return to the uptrend, but for now, BTC is lagging behind record-high stocks.

*This is not investment advice.