Bitcoin price today is trading around $114,290, consolidating after defending the $112,600–$113,500 support zone. Buyers are testing the upper boundary of the rising channel, with overhead resistance clustered near $115,000. The macro backdrop has added weight, as cooling U.S. inflation revived speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its upcoming meeting.
Bitcoin Price Tests Key Resistance
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has climbed steadily since bottoming at $107,300 in late August. The recovery has carried price back above all major exponential moving averages, with the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA now stacked positively between $111,824 and $112,735. This alignment provides a strong bullish base as traders eye the $115,000 Fibonacci level as the next major test.
Momentum indicators are improving. The relative strength index (RSI) has risen to 65, nearing overbought territory but still showing room for continuation. A breakout above $115,000 would validate the ascending channel structure and potentially open the door toward $117,300 and $120,000. Failure here could see price retreat to retest $113,500 support.
Cooling Inflation Strengthens Fed Cut Bets
Bitcoin’s move higher has been helped by macro catalysts. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August fell 0.1%, surprising markets and reinforcing bets that the Fed will deliver at least a 25 basis point cut. Futures markets now price an 88% probability of such a move, with 12% betting on a larger 50 basis point cut.
This shift in expectations triggered a swift rebound in BTC, which gained 0.5% within the hour of the data release. Analysts note that crypto remains highly sensitive to monetary policy signals, with traders positioning ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. A softer CPI could fuel another leg higher, while a hot print risks derailing momentum.
On-Chain Flows Signal Renewed Accumulation
On-chain exchange data adds to the bullish case. Net inflows of $59.09 million were recorded on September 11, marking a reversal after weeks of outflows. This uptick signals that traders are moving capital back onto exchanges, potentially preparing for directional bets ahead of key macro events.
While inflows are improving, overall participation remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped sharply from 70 to 49, showing that sentiment has cooled despite price stability. Analysts warn that if net flows fail to expand in the coming days, BTC may struggle to sustain a decisive breakout.
Technical Outlook For Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin’s roadmap is clearly defined heading into Thursday’s CPI release. On the upside, a clean break above $115,000 could invite momentum buyers, with targets at $117,300 and $120,000. Beyond that, the next supply zone sits closer to $123,600–$124,000.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $113,500, followed by $112,600 and the 200 EMA near $111,875. Losing this cluster would weaken bullish structure, exposing BTC to a pullback toward $111,100 and potentially $107,300.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?
The short-term outlook hinges on U.S. inflation data and Fed policy expectations. Cooling PPI data has given Bitcoin room to climb, and inflows hint at cautious accumulation. However, sentiment remains fragile, and any upside surprise in CPI could stall momentum.
As long as BTC holds above $113,500, analysts see potential for a breakout toward $115,000–$117,300 in the coming sessions. A softer CPI reading could be the spark that carries price toward the $120,000 region, while a miss could send Bitcoin back to its recent accumulation base.
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