Bearish expectations for leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum are beginning to fade. At this point, according to the latest options market data, fears of a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly weakened. Options market data suggests a recovery in call/put curves.
Analysts say that the FED’s critical interest rate decision, which will be announced on September 17, is the reason for the decrease in expectations of a decline.
However, according to analysts, the pace of the rise in BTC, ETH, and altcoins will largely depend on the size of the Fed’s expected interest rate cut.
According to CME data, investors are pricing in over a 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, while a massive 50 basis point move is also possible.
Speaking to Coindesk, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini said a surprise 50 basis point rate cut could trigger a major rally.
A surprise 50 basis point rate cut would be a huge +gamma BUY signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (SOL).
Apart from these, gold will also go crazy.”
At this point, Magadini said Deribit SOL options are already showing a strong uptrend, with calls trading at a 4-5 volatility premium over puts.
Stating that Bitcoin will rise in any case, Magadini stated that if the FED makes a 25 basis point cut, a calm rise for BTC is likely to continue.
Magadini added that it could take up to a week for ETH to retest its all-time highs and see it above $5,000.
*This is not investment advice.