All eyes around the world, including Bitcoin and global markets, are once again focused on the FED’s interest rate decision.
Although a series of recently released macroeconomic data have kept inflation concerns alive in the US, it is considered certain that the Fed will cut its policy rate.
At this point, a 25 basis point cut by the Fed tonight is priced in at 95.8%, while a 50 basis point cut is priced in at 4.2%.
However, the possibility of the FED making a surprise decision of 50 basis points is not excluded.
When Will the September Fed Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The FED will announce its September interest rate decision on September 17, 2025 at 21:00 Turkish time.
Following the decision, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will make oral statements at 21:30.
What Will the FED’s Decision Be?
Despite US President Donald Trump’s long-standing calls for a drastic interest rate cut, the Fed, which has kept interest rates steady until now, is expected to cut interest rates further today.
At this point, the FED is expected to lower the policy rate to the range of 4.00% – 4.25%.
However, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December remains high. However, the policy text for the interest rate cuts for the coming months and the signals Fed Chair Powell will provide regarding future policies in his post-meeting statements are of paramount importance.
“We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, as inflationary pressures are increasing again, as seen in the released inflation report,” said Christian Lawrence, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Rabobank.
Bitcoin and Its Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market!
The cryptocurrency market is trading sideways ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated interest rate decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading between $116,000 and $117,000. While the Fed’s 25 basis point decision is expected to maintain bullish sentiment for both crypto and gold, analysts warn caution against the risk of short-term volatility due to high leverage.
“A 25bp cut could extend the uptrend, but we could still see a short-term pullback driven by profit taking and liquidations. This isn’t due to weakening fundamentals. The critical level for Bitcoin is $117,900. A break above this resistance could pave the way for new highs. However, if rejected, a temporary drop to the $113,000-$110,000 range could occur,” crypto strategist Biupa said.
*This is not investment advice.