'Forget Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle, This Market Is Different,' Analyst Says

According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, the current market cycle has proven to be different in every way.

Van de Poppe lists three things that might support this assertion. First, “Uptober” has turned into “Downtober.” The crypto market saw a historic sell-off over the past weekend; $19 billion in leveraged bets were liquidated following an Oct. 10 flash crash, the largest ever in crypto history. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are currently down in October, a month historically deemed bullish for the markets.

The second and third reasons, according to the crypto analyst, are that altcoins did not break out at the “exact” same time as previous cycles and that Bitcoin made a new all-time high before its halving.

The last Bitcoin halving happened on April 20, 2024, which saw Bitcoin’s block reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125. Bitcoin reached a new high of $73,835 in March 2024, a month before the halving event. Bitcoin’s current all time high of $126,198 was reached on Oct. 6, 2025.

Forget four-year cycle?

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $111,830, down 11.53% from its all time high of $126,198 reached this month.

Van de Poppe expressed no surprise that a bear market might be imminent:” I’m not worried that the bear market has started.”

The Bitcoin price would need to drop 20% below its current all-time high and sustain beneath it to officially enter a bear market. In this light, Van de Poppe declares an end to the Bitcoin four year cycle: “The 4-year cycle doesn’t exist anymore and I think we should erase the entire thesis of the 4-year cycle.”

“I think that this cycle is going to be way longer, and I’ve been mentioning before that I think that we’re in Q3 of 2019,” van de Poppe stated, implying the current cycle might stretch longer than four years, adding “That means, 1.5-2 years to go.”