Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged below $104,000 today, worrying investors. Following this sharp decline, the most debated topic in the market was whether BTC would fall below $100,000 before the end of October.
Chart showing the intraday decline in BTC price.
According to data from prediction platform Polymarket, the majority of investors think Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 this month. According to the data:
- While the probability of “BTC falling below $100,000 this month” option is priced at 48.9%,
- For the “Will not fall” option, the rate is at 52.9%.
This suggests the market is almost split in two. There are also notable predictions for lower price scenarios:
- The probability of below $95,000 is 24.6%,
- The probability of falling below $90,000 is traded at 9.8%.
Optimism regarding upward expectations is quite low:
- The probability of BTC breaking above $130,000 this month is only 6%,
- The probability of it rising above $135,000 is priced at around 2%.
According to Polymarket data, 45% of investors predict that Ethereum could fall to around $3,400 in October:
- The probability of under $3,000 is 15%,
- The probability of falling below $2,800 is around 9%.
In upside scenarios, the probability of breaking above $5,000 is priced at only 9%.
*This is not investment advice.