Bitcoin at $108K, Can Price Finally Clear $115K as the Fed Talks Payments Today

The crypto market has entered a phase of uncertainty after a massive $20 billion crash wiped out gains across major assets. At the center of the current debate is Bitcoin, which is trading around $110,000, just below its crucial on-chain “realized price” for traders, estimated at $115,000.

According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin being below this metric is typically a bearish signal, as prices often use this level as support during bull markets.

Bitcoin traders currently sit at around 10% unrealized losses, a level where capitulation usually slows and buying interest returns. This could set the stage for a bounce if macro conditions improve.

Related: Bitcoin Price prediction: BTC Bulls Target Key Resistance Ahead of Fed Event

Macro Catalysts to Watch: Fed Cuts and Trade Talks

Two global events could define the next leg of the crypto cycle: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision and the U.S.–China tariff negotiations.

The Fed is expected to meet on October 28–29, with a possible interest rate cut on the table. Meanwhile, the China tariff deadline is set for November 1, a geopolitical milestone that could influence market sentiment.

“If the U.S.–China trade dispute moves toward resolution, markets could turn sharply positive. This trade uncertainty was one of the biggest triggers for the recent liquidation event,” Moreno explained.

Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a payments innovation conference today (October 21), featuring regulators, financial executives, and crypto leaders. The event will explore how digital assets, AI, and tokenization are shaping the global payments system. The discussions could influence crypto markets and impact prices in the short term.

Even a small improvement in global policy clarity could restore sentiment and bring capital back into risk assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

Related: Bitcoin Nears Oversold Territory as Gold Hits Record Highs Amid $1.5M BTC Parity Bet

Q4 Could Spark a New Rally

Historically, Q4 has been a strong period for crypto markets, often delivering rallies after summer slowdowns. If Bitcoin can close above $115K, it could quickly move toward the next resistance range between $150K and $195K.

Moreno added that the current bull cycle remains active but may be entering a slower growth phase compared to early 2025.

“The $115K level is critical resistance. If Bitcoin breaks above that, we could start expecting a Q4 rally. On the downside, $100K remains a psychological and technical support zone. If we hold there, selling pressure could ease,” Moreno said. “

When Will This Cycle Peak?

The big question for investors is when this bull cycle will reach its peak. Some analysts, like Benjamin Cowen, predict a top in Q4 2025, while others believe the market could extend into Q1 2026.

Moreno’s outlook leans toward a cycle peak between late Q4 2025 and early 2026, supported by diminishing bullish intensity but continued upward movement.