October began with great hope and expectations for Bitcoin, as October is generally known as “Uptober” in the market, meaning the month of the BTC price rally.
Looking at past historical data, we see that BTC rose in 10 of the October months in the last 12 years and fell in only 2.
Although this increased expectations for an increase in October, October did not go as expected.
Bitcoin Set to Close October in the Red!
October turned into a red month for Bitcoin as the Fed’s interest rate cut decision and the easing of US-China trade tensions failed to support BTC prices.
At this point, Bitcoin is preparing to break its six-year upward streak and close October in the red for the first time.
“Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today, otherwise we will see a red October close for the first time in 7 years,” analyst Jelle said in his X post.
Bitcoin is set to close October lower after a six-year hiatus. Some investors argue that the red trend in October is “preparation for a larger November rally,” while others claim that the Bitcoin bull cycle is faltering and may be nearing its end.
At this point, popular analyst Timothy Peterson asked in his X post, “What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?”
In fact, Peterson stated that there was essentially no correlation between October and Bitcoin’s performance in subsequent months, saying:
Bitcoin’s growth in the fourth quarter generally slows after a weak October.
At this point, after a weak October, Bitcoin’s 3-month return averages 11% (2016-); after a strong October, it’s 21%.
Does Bitcoin Like November?
When we look at Bitcoin’s performance over years and months, we notice that declines are concentrated in certain months and increases are concentrated in certain months.
When we look at the Bitcoin monthly return chart above, we see that March, August and September are generally the months of decline, while February, July, October and November are the months of rise.
When we look at BTC’s November performance over the last 12 years, we see that it rose for 8 years and fell for 4 years.
According to Coinglass data, November is one of Bitcoin’s best months historically, reaching an average gain of 46% over the 12 years since 2013. The period between October and December stands out as the best quarter in terms of BTC price increases, with an average gain of 78%, according to CoinGlass data.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s price action could reverse in November. However, given the ongoing uncertainty, it’s difficult to predict whether Bitcoin will rally.
*This is not investment advice.