Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that if historical trends play out, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially hit $250,000 in the coming weeks.
The outlook is based on a comparison of Bitcoin’s current monthly price structure to previous bull market cycles, particularly the parabolic rallies of 2016–2017 and 2020–2021.
In an X post on November 1, Martinez noted that each of those cycles followed a period of consolidation, then a strong breakout that coincided with a bullish crossover on the MACD indicator, a popular momentum gauge.
Currently, Bitcoin appears to be trading in a similar pattern, with the MACD histogram turning positive, a signal that has historically preceded explosive growth phases. In the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin surged over 4,000%, while the 2020 rally delivered gains of nearly 1,500%.
If this pattern repeats, Martinez implies Bitcoin could mirror those exponential moves, potentially reaching $250,000 by December.
Notably, with Bitcoin opening November in a consolidation phase around $110,000, such a move would require extraordinary momentum and macro conditions similar to previous peaks, including sustained institutional inflows and renewed retail enthusiasm.
Has BTC price peaked?
Indeed, Bitcoin’s recent stall has led to speculation that the asset may have already reached the peak of the current cycle. However, insights from crypto trader Ted Pillows challenge that notion.
In an X post on November 1, Pillows stated that in past cycles, Bitcoin typically set new all-time highs after its halving event, followed by a rapid, euphoric surge and a sharp correction of 60% to 70%.
This time, however, the narrative is shifting. Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high before the 2024 halving, a first in its price history, and the uptrend since then has been steadier than in previous explosive cycles.
The cryptocurrency has also spent nearly six months consolidating above the $100,000 level, a behavior Pillows said is atypical of a blow-off top, where prices usually spike and collapse quickly. The prolonged consolidation, he argued, suggests a stronger structural base and ongoing institutional accumulation.
While analysts acknowledge the potential for a pullback, Pillows contends that the traditional post-peak pattern may not apply. He noted that the current setup points to a different market environment than in prior cycles.
Bitcoin price analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $111,076, up nearly 1% in the past 24 hours but down about 2% on the weekly timeframe.
At current levels, Bitcoin remains comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $114,247, signaling short-term bullish momentum as the asset holds a premium over this key support level.
However, it sits below the 200-day SMA of $105,861, reflecting a longer-term bearish tilt and potential vulnerability to deeper pullbacks if momentum fades.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.37, indicating neither overbought exhaustion nor oversold conditions, suggesting sideways consolidation is likely in the near term unless a decisive catalyst emerges.
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