As Bitcoin extends its multi-week decline, touching $103,700 today, attention is now shifting toward a technical level that has repeatedly defined its long-term trend.
Analyst Lark Davis highlighted this level in a new post, noting that Bitcoin is approaching the same area that triggered several major rebounds since early 2023.
50-Week EMA Has Historically Supported the Trend
According to Davis, Bitcoin’s 50-week EMA has acted as a powerful support zone for nearly two years. Each time the price dipped toward this line on the weekly chart, market sentiment collapsed.
Market Turns Cautious
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,100 just a month ago and has since fallen by over 17%. The retreat has renewed fear across the market. In particular, the Fear and Greed Index now sits at 27, compared with neutral readings of 42 a week ago and 59 a month ago.
On the chart, Bitcoin is now edging closer to the same 50-week EMA that acted as a lifeline during past corrections. The level currently sits around the $101,000 region. Now, traders are asking whether Bitcoin will repeat its historical pattern.
“Will history repeat itself? Or will it be different this time?” Davis asked.
Low Price to Target Next
With Bitcoin revisiting the $103K level today, some traders warned that the next major support lies near $92,000. Investor Ted Pillows described the market as being in “free fall.”
Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin had lost key support amid whale selling, weaker U.S. stocks, and a stronger dollar.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from Glassnode shows short-term holders entering capitulation, with unrealized losses at their worst since April. Historically, such conditions have signaled potential buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price
Analysts have observed various indicators suggesting that insufficient demand is contributing to Bitcoin’s weak performance.
CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno stated that rather than focusing on long-term holders, he monitors whether demand can absorb supply at higher prices. Over the past few weeks, there hasn’t been enough demand, leading to falling prices. Over the long term, demand is still growing but remains below trend.
Instead of looking at Bitcoin long-term holder distribution/spending, I like to look at the other side of the trade.
Is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices? Since a few weeks ago the answer is no, and that is why we see prices declining.
On a longer term… pic.twitter.com/3cNBY9Vk7e
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 3, 2025
This is further confirmed by the recent trend of more outflows than inflows from Bitcoin ETFs. In particular, ETFs have sold over $1 billion worth of BTC in the last four trading days.