Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence warns that Bitcoin could be entering its weakest period relative to gold since 2018. According to his latest model, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could potentially break down below the 25 floor.
This would open the path toward 15, erasing nearly 60% of Bitcoin’s relative strength against the precious metal it once outperformed.
The ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold equal one Bitcoin, peaked near 60 in late 2021. Since then, it has remained flat, mirroring Bitcoin’s difficulty in establishing a clear trend, while gold has quietly set new record highs.
McGlone notes that the ratio has been stagnant for about five years, and the recent downward trend indicates renewed bearish pressure.
Ugly truth
Charts from Bloomberg show the ratio bouncing off 25 several times this year, with each recovery weaker than the previous one. The latest test occurred alongside a mild rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising above 4%, and an increase in equity volatility.
Gold’s resilience in the face of rate cuts, combined with Bitcoin’s underreaction, suggests fading demand for the cryptocurrency. McGlone describes this as a potential “inflection point for risk assets.” If the pattern breaks lower, he projects a structural change in which gold reclaims its safe-haven dominance.
After years of competing for the same narrative, Bitcoin’s digital gold comparison may soon undergo its most challenging reality check since its creation.