Bitcoin reaching a quarter of a million dollars this year may be more trouble than its worth, according to a macro analyst.
“One of the worst things that could happen is Bitcoin shoots up to $250,000, and the S&P to 8,000 in like a 3-month period,” macro analyst and investor Mel Mattison told crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano in an interview published to YouTube on Friday.
“And you get this blow-off top, and everybody rushes to the exits to take profits, and it starts going down,” Mattison said.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumping to $250,000 would represent an increase of around 142% from its current price of $102,870, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin is having “healthy rotations,” Mattison says
It comes just days after Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in four months on Nov. 4. Mattison said, “We’re having healthy rotations, healthy movement, and we are getting at some very interesting points at some of the channels that I look at.”
Just a month earlier, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chairman Tom Lee had reaffirmed their bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting Bitcoin could still reach $250,000 before the end of the year, despite the narrowing time frame.
November has historically been the highest-performing month on average for Bitcoin, with an average return of 42%. At Bitcoin’s current price of $103,000, this would mean the asset would reach $145,000 by the end of the month, if the average holds, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin bear market in 2026 is up for debate in the industry
That would align with Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg’s forecast that Bitcoin will climb to between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of this year, before entering a bear market in 2026.
However, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook for 2026.
Mattison said that Bitcoin may reach $150,000 for the first time in February 2026.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently predicted that 2026 will be another “up year” for Bitcoin, running counter to the traditional four-year cycle narrative.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in late October that planets would almost need to align for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year.