As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to hold above the $100,000 support, there are growing concerns that the asset could crash to the $50,000 mark.
In this regard, insights by OpenAI’s ChatGPT point to the possibility of the asset plunging to that level in the coming months.
ChatGPT noted that Bitcoin’s momentum is fading after failing to hold above $110,000, with the RSI cooling to neutral and the price hovering just above its 200-day moving average (MA) near $87,000, a sign the trend is losing steam.
On the macro side, the AI highlighted the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts and tightening liquidity as potential drags on risk assets, while rising exchange inflows suggest growing sell pressure from investors.
According to ChatGPT, a drop to $50,000 would likely stem from a combination of tightening liquidity, ETF outflows, institutional profit-taking, and a break below key supports at $87,000 and $80,0000 a setup that could trigger panic selling similar to 2018 and 2022.
If these risks align, the AI model sees the April–August 2026 window as the most probable time for such a crash, consistent with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of peaking 12–18 months after a halving. From a projected top near $130,000 to $150,000, a typical 60% to 70% correction would bring prices near $50,000.
However, ChatGPT cautioned that if macro conditions remain stable, Bitcoin could instead see a milder pullback to the $70,000 and $80,000 range before resuming its next uptrend.
Bitcoin’s technical outlook
At the same time, the possibility of Bitcoin crashing to $50,000 is also supported by technical indicators. In this context, cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez suggested in an X post on November 11 that Bitcoin’s next major market bottom could occur in roughly 328 days, placing the timeline around October 2026.
According to his outlook, Bitcoin appears to be following a cyclical pattern similar to previous market cycles, where peaks are followed by prolonged drawdowns lasting over a year before recovery begins.
The projected bottom range of $38,000 to $50,000 aligns with historical retracement levels seen after previous bull runs.
The analysis implies that Bitcoin may continue to face gradual downside pressure as the current cycle matures, potentially marking the end of its post-halving rally phase.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,411, having dropped about 1.4% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, BTC has gained 1.3%.
Bitcoin’s price now sits below both the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $112,216 and the 200-day SMA at $105,751, confirming a bearish short- to medium-term trend.
The 50-day SMA acting as overhead resistance reinforces downward pressure, while the minor cushion above the 200-day SMA keeps the long-term uptrend technically alive but fragile.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 47.76 (neutral) shows no momentum extremes, neither oversold enough for a strong bounce nor overbought to justify further selling.
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