Bitcoin is at a critical technical crossroads, and the course of the cycle will be determined by what transpires over the next 24 to 72 hours. The 50-week simple moving average, a long-term trend indicator that usually distinguishes between transitional tops and macro bull phases, is the primary level under consideration. The likelihood that the cycle top has already occurred increases dramatically to 60-70% if Bitcoin closes below the 50W SMA today.
Bitcoin’s aggressive cycle
The situation is dire: the 50-day moving average recently fell below the 200-day, and we already saw a death cross. That signal is not insignificant, historically, it indicates changes into prolonged corrective phases. The timing is crucial. Bulls must now make an aggressive appearance if the cycle is still ongoing. Passive dip-buying is no longer acceptable; the market must firmly regain its structure.
The window is still open. The odds will once more be about 50/50 if Bitcoin is able to rise above the 50W SMA by the end of next week. However, the longer the price remains below this threshold, the more the market comes to accept that the top has already been reached. The next action becomes more predictable if that is the case. In the past, following a macro top, Bitcoin usually rises one last time toward the 200-day moving average, creating a lower high before the deeper downtrend begins.
Returning to basics
Bulls will have a clear chance to adjust their position if that possible move takes several weeks. One thing, though, is constant throughout cycles regardless of how Q4 turns out: Bitcoin nearly always returns to its 200-week SMA by the cycle’s midpoint, which is typically in the midterm year.
This time, mid-to-late 2026 is when that forecast falls. This would probably put Bitcoin in the $60,000-$70,000 range, which is consistent with long-term accumulation zones and fair-value models given current valuations and historical curve trends.
Close below today’s 50W SMA — the top is probably in the 60-70% range. Reclaim by the following week — return to the 50/50 scenario.
One more rally to the 200D SMA is probably in store. By 2026, the 200W SMA retest will be between $60,000 and $70,000.