Bitcoin has officially formed a death cross on the daily chart, a grim signal that usually appears when the market is under heavy downside pressure. This time, the formation came after several weak weeks of October and November that pushed the price down under $100,000.
The crossover itself is familiar — the shorter moving average sliding under the longer one — but in Bitcoin’s history it has worked as a clear timing marker, the kind that tells you whether the market is sitting near a forming base or whether it still has room to fall before any kind of stabilization appears.
Benjamin Cowen put the entire situation into two scenarios, both tied to a narrow time frame. He pointed out that in earlier cycles, when the broader trend was still functioning, Bitcoin did not wait around after a death cross. A reaction usually showed up within a week, the price stabilized, and the chart made it obvious that the signal had landed near an exhaustion zone rather than deep inside a larger downturn.
That is the first scenario here: a quick rebound that does not need special interpretation, simply because constructive responses in the past arrived without delay and formed the base for short recoveries.
Second scenario for Bitcoin
The second scenario covers what happens if that reaction does not appear. Cowen noted that in those cases, Bitcoin typically moved lower before attempting any recovery, and that the bounce that followed usually reached only the 200-day SMA, created a lower high and confirmed that the broader trend had already cooled.
The signal is already on the chart, the window for confirmation is small, and it is the next few days that will decide which of the two paths the market is lining up for.