Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $117,000 after recently tapping a new all-time high, but beneath this calm surface, analyst and trader Amr Taha brought to light a telling shift in leading crypto exchange Binance’s retail behavior.
Retail traders selling into strength
In the past 30 days, retail inflows to the exchange have surged from $12 billion to over $16 billion, a sign of aggressive selling.
Historically, retail traders have exhibited the same tendency during strong uptrends, often exiting early and missing substantial upside.
A similar behavior from retail investors was seen in early April 2025, when BTC surged from $78K to $111K and retail traders sold prematurely, driven by short-term profit-taking motives.
The trend is further confirmed by Binance’s Net Taker Volume turning negative, a bearish signal that implies takers are offloading positions en masse.
At the same time, whales are buying at high prices
While retail heads for the exits, whales keep stacking. Data from Amr Taha’s Whales Screener shows that in just the last 24 hours, over $600 million worth of crypto, $400 million in ETH and $200 million in BTC, have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges.
The withdrawals indicate a shift from trading into long-term holding, reflecting strong belief in further upside, even as retail gets shaken out.
BTC Price Analysis: A Fragile But Balanced Market
According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin market remains fundamentally strong, though signs of cooling are emerging.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a resurgence in net inflows and volume, a sign that institutional demand remains robust. However, some minor profit realization, as hinted by a slight dip in ETF MVRV, can be seen.
The RSI, which had recently overheated, has now cooled to 63.11, out of the overbought zone but still bullish. The MACD histogram is also showing fading bullish momentum, potentially hinting at short-term consolidation or a pullback before the next breakout.
The Bollinger Bands show that if BTC holds the midline at $114.8K, a breakout toward the upper Band and retest of $123.5K is likely. A close above this level could open the door to a fresh rally. Conversely, a drop below $114.8K could expose the downside target around the $106K Bollinger Band base.
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