The crypto market outlook has continued to worsen by the day, with Bitcoin dropping to below $90,000 for the first time since April Tuesday morning.
Amidst the sell-off, Bitcoin is down 4.5% over the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data, likely due to recent movements from Mt. Gox wallets. Roughly 185.5 BTC, worth $16.8 million, were transferred, according to Arkham data.
However, the recent uptick in buying pressure has pushed Bitcoin’s price up 2% over the past five hours, recovering from an intraday low of $89,368 to $91,474. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has dropped 20% from $4 trillion on October 14 to $3.2 trillion as of Tuesday.
Market enters “risk-management” phase
Adding pressure to the market decline is deteriorating market sentiment, driven partly by reduced institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $2.59 billion in November, nearing February’s $3.56 billion total.
Likewise, last week’s spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $728.57 million, the third-largest, behind May’s drop of $787.74 million and September’s $795.56 million, per SoSoValue data.
The exodus of capital from exchange-traded funds comes as the “market shifts from a momentum phase to a risk-management phase,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUCoin, told Decrypt.
Apart from the macroeconomic uncertainty, “profit protection from funds that entered earlier in the cycle and portfolio rebalancing, after crypto’s exceptional rally compared to traditional assets since 2023,” are two major catalysts driving the outflows, according to Thakral.
“Institutions aren’t exiting because of negative long-term sentiment, the expert added, when asked if this bearish ETF-driven flows will continue. “They’re responding to a lack of catalysts, slowing ETF inflows, and a temporary shift toward risk-off positioning.”
Macro clarity remains pivotal in restarting the recovery and quashing bear market possibilities, according to Shivam and experts who previously spoke to Decrypt.
How low can Bitcoin go?
While Bitcoin can go lower, “the downside still appears relatively limited,” Thakral said
If the bearish flows persist, Bitcoin could revisit the $82,000 to $85,000 range, the expert added, suggesting that this area is where “both long-term holder cost basis and ETF inflow clusters sit.”
The chances of Bitcoin hitting $115,000 before $85,000 have dropped from 66.7% on November 13 to 25% on Tuesday, according to data from prediction market Myriad. (Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan)