Bitcoin Just Erased All of Its 2025 Gains—And the 'Picture Remains Fragile', Says Analyst

Bitcoin has now erased all of its 2025 gains, dipping below the $93,000 mark on Monday for the first time in nearly seven months.

Bitcoin was recently trading for $92,123 after having dropped 2.3% in the past day and about 13% in the past week, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. Trading volume for BTC has more than doubled in the past day, jumping to $114 billion according to CoinGlass.

So far, about $335 million worth of Bitcoin derivatives contracts have been liquidated in the past day, pushing total crypto market liquidations to $725 million over the last 24 hours.

“The break below the 50-week moving average and a weekly close under $100K for the first time since May 4 have cemented a more cautious tone across digital asset markets,” wrote analysts at QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto trading firm. “In a space where narrative often drives price, talk of the four-year cycle nearing its end has only added to the prevailing bearish sentiment.”

The QCP team alluded to the end of the four-year cycle for Bitcoin. Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced what’s called a halving event roughly every four years. And in the interim, it usually experiences a significant price drawdown about 12- to 18-months after each halving. After the most recent April 2024 halving, BTC neared the end of that window in October.

Leading up to October, many analysts said the four-year cycle had ended. But now, some analysts are saying it’s not quite over—just delayed.

The QCP analysts flagged $92,000 as a key support level for BTC, adding that that price served as a lower bound late last year and early this year. As of this writing, Bitcoin is now very close to breaking that barrier.

“The 92K region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested. Yet, as seen over the past few weeks, dense overhead supply could limit the strength of any rebound,” the analysts wrote. “Add to that the rising macro uncertainties and a sluggish return of liquidity to crypto markets, and the picture remains fragile even with the U.S. government now officially reopened.”

The CME gap that the QCP analysts mentioned refers to a difference in the spot price for Bitcoin—which never stops trading—and the price when the closing bell rang for CME Bitcoin derivatives contracts on Friday afternoon.

The U.S. government shutdown ended last week, becoming the new longest shutdown on record after dragging on for 43 days. But the macroeconomic picture still hasn’t clarified enough to restore investor confidence.

Users on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, are now overwhelmingly certain that BTC will dip as low as $85,000 sooner than it can climb to $115,000 again. Users now think there’s a 63% chance that BTC will dive to $85K, a jump of 30% in the past day.