Prediction markets are buzzing as traders on Polymarket and Kalshi lay down odds on where bitcoin may land through 2025, and the numbers paint a far more grounded picture than the moonshot fantasies circulating online.
Prediction Markets Show Strong Odds for Bitcoin Re-Capturing Six Figures to End 2025
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025, bitcoin is changing hands at $91,758 — and the people actually putting money behind their opinions are sending a clear message: temper the fireworks.
Polymarket’s blockbuster contract, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?” has already hauled in more than $59 million in volume, and the crowd isn’t exactly betting on a once-in-a-lifetime melt-up. The fantasy bracket — a cool $1 million per coin — is pulling in less than a 1% implied probability, with “Yes” shares going for half a penny.
Even the $250,000 and $200,000 tiers barely get any love, sitting at 1% and 2% odds. Markets may dream big, but traders clearly don’t think 2025 is auditioning for a Hollywood script. Things start getting real around the mid-range levels. The $170,000 and $150,000 brackets have nudged up to around 3% apiece.
A bit more enthusiasm shows up at $140,000 with a 5% chance. But the real action — and where the liquidity crowds — sits in a predictable zone: between $100,000 and $130,000. Polymarket’s most confident call? A 62% shot that bitcoin tags $100,000 before Jan. 1, 2026.
The $110,000 tier follows at 31%, the $120,000 mark at 14%, and $130,000 at 7%. If markets are a popularity contest, six-figure bitcoin is still the prom king, but he’s no longer coasting around in a limo.
Below current levels, traders are hedging lightly. There’s a 36% chance bitcoin drops to $80,000, 13% for $70,000, and modest tail-risk interest at $50,000 (4%) and $20,000 (1%). In other words: nobody’s ruling out turbulence, but the crowd isn’t bracing for a catastrophe.
Read more: McRib Comeback Sparks a Nudge in Markets as Bitcoin Traders Reignite Crypto’s Sauciest Myth
Kalshi’s market, “How high will Bitcoin get this year?” backs up the story almost point-for-point. The platform shows 9% odds of hitting $130,000 or above, with probabilities sliding as the numbers rise.
Anything above $160,000 hovers between 2% and 4%, and the loftier $225,000 and $300,000 targets sit at 1% each. Kalshi gives even the boldest bracket — $500,000 — less than a 1% probability, which mirrors Polymarket’s skepticism for ultrahigh calls.
Taken together, the prediction markets suggest something simple: traders are optimistic, but not delusional. Six-figure bitcoin remains a popular bet, but the outlook is far more “responsible adult” than “laser-eyes fever dream.”
FAQ ❓
- What price target has the highest odds on Polymarket?Polymarket traders give bitcoin the strongest odds of touching $100,000 in 2025.
- How high do Kalshi traders think bitcoin will go this year? Kalshi shows single-digit odds for bitcoin clearing $130,000 in 2025.
- What is bitcoin’s current price as traders place these predictions? Bitcoin is trading at $91,758 on the morning of Nov. 19, 2025.
- Are traders expecting extreme bitcoin highs next year?Both platforms place less than a 1% probability on prices above $300,000.